OPEC revised downwards its growth forecasts for global oil demand in 2024, marking the third consecutive reduction for the producing group. In its monthly report released this Monday, the organization announced that an increase in demand of 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd) is expected next year, a figure lower than the projection of 2.03 million bpd made. in the previous month.
This adjustment is largely due to expectations about demand in China, where OPEC reduced its growth estimate from 650,000 bpd to 580,000 bpd.. Although the Chinese government’s stimulus measures could boost demand in the fourth quarter, factors such as the economic slowdown and the transition to cleaner energy sources are raising concerns.
OPEC highlighted that diesel consumption has remained moderate, affected by the reduction in construction activity and the trend to replace diesel in heavy trucks with liquefied natural gas.
The details of the report
The report also indicates that global oil demand will reach 104.1 million barrels per day, with a growth of 1.9 million bpd, which represents a decrease of 106,000 bpd compared to the previous estimate. In addition, downward adjustments have been made for 2025, with projected growth of 1.64 million bpd, which is equivalent to a revision of 100,000 bpd less.
Although a slight decrease in oil demand is expected in Europe, developed nations as a whole anticipate a slight increase in consumption, driven mainly by the United States, where an increase of 130,000 bpd is expected between 2023 and 2024, along with a growth of 580,000 bpd in China and 270,000 bpd in India. By 2025, demand in the US is estimated to increase by 40,000 bpd, while increases of 410,000 bpd and 240,000 bpd are expected in China and India, respectively.
In terms of global economic growth, OPEC maintains its projection of 3.0% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, highlighting the boost coming from the US, which would grow 2.5% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025. In the case of China, OPEC estimates growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025, while India is projected at 6.8% this year and 6.3% next year. next.
On the other hand, heOPEC reported that in September, its crude oil production stood at 26.04 million barrels per day, a decrease of 604,000 bpd compared to August.driven by significant declines in Libya and Iraq. Saudi Arabia continues to be the largest producer of the group, extracting almost 9 million bpd, while members of the OPEC+ alliance have maintained relatively stable production, with slight variations in Kazakhstan and Russia.
Source: Ambito
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