With the electoral contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris around the corner, great actors project a important rise for Bitcoinand therefore for all crypto market. And digital assets, particularly BTC, are focused on what may happen with the presidential elections of the November 5.
In a recent report, Standard Charteredthe British investment bank, advanced its projection for Bitcoin in case Harris wins or Trump does, but, more importantly, is that maintains its optimistic forecast for the largest cryptocurrency at the $100,000 level by the end of 2024 and maintains the forecast of a level of US$200,000 by the end of 2025, “regardless of the electoral scenario.”
The document titled “The rebirth of the phoenix” maintains that while the outcome will be important for digital assets, “we believe it matters less than when Joe Biden was the candidate Democratic and less than what the market expects”, reducing a little the foam and fervor of the crypto enthusiasts who are eagerly awaiting the electoral result.
It turns out that first of all, the banking giant considers that the move towards the relaxation of regulations, especially the repeal of the SAB 121 (Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121) – which imposes strict accounting rules on digital assets held by banks – will continue in 2025, regardless of who comes to the White House. However, it ensures that this process “it would be slower under a Harris presidency”.
Secondly, it stands out that the recent movements in the US Treasury markets, with a yield curve that is steepening again, inflationary expectations that decrease more slowly than real yields and neutral risk rates in decline, while the premium of term remains stable, create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. Finally, he anticipates a seasonal rebound in inflows into BTC ETFs throughout October.
Donald Trump vs. Harris: how much will Bitcoin go
It is for that reason that Standard Chartered projects that BTC will end 2024 at new all-time highs under any election outcome. This is approximately $125,000 if Trump wins or $75,000 if Harris wins..
And he warns that a Harris victory would likely cause an initial drop in price, but he expects to buy the dips as the market recognizes that regulatory progress will continue to occur and other positive factors take hold.
Thus, a Trump administration would probably be the most favorable option for Bitcoin, given that BTC could benefit from a more lax approach to low tax policy in a “Trump 2.0” scenario. It should be remembered that the magnate expressed that, if elected, he would actively support digital assets, which would be reflected in regulatory changes and the approval of ETFs.
The report concludes that a Trump victory appears more positive for BTC. However, while it is difficult to measure the exact impact of a Harris victory, “we believe it would not be as negative for digital assets as a second Biden administration would have been”, launches the bank. And remember that in May, Biden vetoed a resolution that sought to cancel the SAB 121 accounting standard.
Bitcoin and election cycles
In dialogue with Ámbito, Matias Partanalyst Bitgetcommented that Bitcoin showed an interesting pattern around the US presidential elections, with notable fluctuations before and after the elections.
Part remembers that During the 2016 election cycle, Bitcoin began an uptrend as the election approachedand after Donald Trump’s victory, its price extended the rise throughout the following year. “In 2020, a similar scenario occurred. Although with the impact of the pandemic and the massive fiscal stimuli, the value of Bitcoin skyrocketed even more, taking it to new all-time highs in the months after the elections,” the analyst slips.
By 2024, projections point to greater volatility in the price of Bitcoin, influenced by the election results, he comments. “If Donald Trump wins the election, we could see a favorable boost for Bitcoin due to his more deregulatory stance and his promise to foster a friendlier environment for the crypto industry.”, assures Part in line with what was proposed by the British bank.
And adds that this includes tax incentives and fewer regulatory restrictionswhich could favor investors. “But Trump in recent months stopped talking about cryptocurrencies and even avoided talking about them when he was consulted in the last interviews,” says the strategist as a way to lower the euphoria.
In case of a victory of Kamala Harris, Increased regulatory scrutiny is anticipated, which could put short-term pressure on Bitcoin, particularly with the possible introduction of “capital gains taxes.” Despite this, factors such as institutional adoption and monetary policy could counteract this impact and promote sustained growth in the long term,” concludes the strategist.
Meanwhile, from Amsterdam, where an important crypto conference took place, Iñaki Apezteguiachief research officer of Crossing Capital, slips in dialogue with this medium that in the US presidential elections, Bitcoin showed a growing impact from 2016, when it began to influence moderately and positively, until 2020, where the effect was most notable among November and December, “in a generally bullish time for the markets“.
For the strategist, this year, cryptocurrency plays a more prominent role in the electoral platform. Well, as Trump explains, he is an open defender of Bitcoin, promising to turn the US into the global capital of its mining, which could trigger a new “bull market” if he wins in November. And he warns that even if Harris wins, A more receptive environment towards cryptocurrencies is expected due to the involvement of large international funds, such as BlackRock.
So things are, Bitcoin’s fate seems independent of the results of the US presidential electionssince it transcends any administration. Whether under a Trump administration, with his promise of more favorable tax policy and a more flexible regulatory environment, or under a Harris presidency, who would implement reforms more gradually, BTC maintains its trajectory towards new highs.
Source: Ambito
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