Global finance chiefs will meet in Washington this week against a backdrop of intense uncertainty over wars in the Middle East and Europe, the weakening of the Chinese economy and concerns that a US presidential election which, according to various analysts, could trigger new trade battles and erode multilateral cooperation.
It should be noted that both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and like the World Bank They will bring together more than 10,000 representatives of economic ministries, central banks and civil society groups, in what will be their annual meetings. It is expected that The most important issue, no matter how much we avoid mentioning it, will be the possible victory of the Republican candidate for the presidency of the United States, Donald Trump.in the November 5 elections.
It is feared that this result would upend the international economic system by imposing new tariffs and massive debt by the US, as well as a move away from climate cooperation.
“Arguably the most important issue for the global economy – the outcome of the US election – is not on the official agenda this week, but tWe are all thinking about him“, said Josh Lipsky, former IMF advisor who now directs the Atlantic Council’s Center for Geoeconomics.
The elections “They have enormous implications on trade policy, on the future of the dollar, on who will be the next president of the Federal Reserve, and all of this affects all countries in the world”he added.
The Democratic presidential candidate for US vice presidency, Kamala Harris, is expected to continue the multilateral cooperation that the Biden administration resumed on issues climate, fiscal and debt relief if he wins next month’s elections.
The meetings, which begin on Monday and will intensify as the week progresses, will likely be the last for US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who led much of the Biden administration’s multilateral efforts on economic and climate issues. Yellen has said she will “probably end” her public service work when President Joe Biden’s term ends in January.
IMF and World Bank: where will be the focus of debate
Analysts hope that within the debates there will be Rising anti-Chinese trade sentiment and rich countries’ industrial policy plansdotted by the sharp tariff increases of the Biden administration on electric vehicles, semiconductors and Chinese solar products, will be a key topic of discussion at the meetings.
Last week, the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgievapointed out unflattering prospects, arguing that the world, weighed down by high debt, was heading towards slow growth in the medium term, and said it predicted a “difficult future”.
Even so, Georgieva said she was “not overly pessimistic” about the outlook, given the pockets of resilience, located mainly in the United States and India.which are offsetting persistent weakness in China and Europe.
“If there were an escalation that endangered oil and gas supplies, it could have much more significant repercussions for the global economy”Georgieva told Reuters in an interview. Support for Ukraine will also be an important topic at the meetingssince the rich democracies of the G7 intend to reach a political agreement before the end of October on lThe issuance of a US$50 billion loan for the Eastern European country secured by frozen Russian sovereign assets.
Despite the climate of unrest, World Bank and IMF leaders intend to spend the week focused on the work at hand in meetingswhich coincide with the 80th anniversary of the founding of the institutions at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944.
For World Bank President Ajay Banga, that means finding ways to accelerate project preparations to utilize the bank’s expanded lending capacity and refine the new scoring system aimed at improving development outcomes.
“The world is the world right now. And instead of using meetings to go over what we already seem to know—which is to admire the problem— I would like to take advantage of the annual meetings to do something about what we can do as institutions“Banga told reporters last week.
Source: Ambito
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