Starting today and twice a day, in the morning and afternoon, Ámbito.com will give the latest results of the surveys and bets so that readers are aware and can make the best decisions based on who aims to be the next president of the USA
On November 5, the United States elects a new president and depending on who it is, the country may or may not suffer a turnaround like we have rarely seen. Ámbito.com readers should be prepared.
On November 5, the United States elects a new president and depending on who the winner is, the world may or may not suffer an upheaval like we have rarely seen. Ámbito.com readers should be prepared.
In a week the US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20. The two main social mechanisms to try to guess if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”, are the polls and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002, Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election, and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “ The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
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Capture 538 Tuesday M.JPG
The Bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP
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Betting Graph M.JPG
See you in the afternoon
Source: Ambito
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