in a week The US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world.. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs: there are countless instruments used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20.
The two main social mechanisms to try to see if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”are the surveys and the results of the betting houses.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002 Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election and was followed in 2008 FiveThirtyEight which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on their historical predictions we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
CPR Surveys 29 10 T.jpg
The bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, which the betting houses collected, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP
Bet RCP 29 10 T.jpg
Graph 29 10 T bets.jpg
What happened during the day
Since the morning, bets in favor of a Trump victory rose from 61.8% to 62.8% and in favor of Harris fell from 36.9% to 39%.
According to 5.38, the polls still gave Harris the winner by 48.1% but increased Trump’s chance from 46.6% to 46.8%.
According to RCP, Trump continued to lead with 48.5% while Harris fell from 48.4% to 48.1%.
Source: Ambito
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