In a week the US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20. The two main social mechanisms to try to guess if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”, are the polls and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002, Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election, and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “ The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the US there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
Surveys 5.38 3 11 T.JPG
The Bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
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The Models
In addition to surveys and bets, there are countless institutions that have developed their own models, collecting countless data and probabilistic algorithms, seeking to predict who will be the next North American president.
One of the best known is the one published by the people of “The Economist”, a medium that is difficult to define as related to Donald Trump.
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What happened since the morning
Given the failure of the different predictive mechanisms, the most experienced political analysts advise not to neglect the “momentum”, the increasing or decreasing trend that these results are experiencing.
This would confront us with the problem of what is the optimal period to determine that “trend”, but since we started these comments five days ago, we consider what happened in these five days.
On the polls side, since then and according to RCP, Trump rose from 46.6% to 46.9% and Harris fell from 48.45 to 48.3%, with those of “5.38” showing a movement in the same direction, with the former going from 46.6% to 46.9% and the second from 48.1% to 47.9%.
Since then, the favoritism of the bets in favor of “Trump president” fell from 61.8% to 53.6%, while those of Harris climbed from 36.9% to 45.1%, while the predictive model of the people of The Economist went from 56% to favor of the Republican to 51% now, while the Democrat rose from 44% to 49%.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at a Harris campaign fundraiser in NYC on Monday. png.png
We can explain this greater volatility of bets and models – in addition to the interference of the “Whales” – mega bettors – and the “Flip-Flop” of positions (taking positions contrary to the original to minimize risks – with phenomena such as yesterday and today morning, when at eight o’clock at night someone bet a couple of million on Polymarkets on Harris in the Pennsylvania vote, making her go ahead (51% to 47%) in the models that consider bets “state ” for “state” (PA is the “KEY” state: it provides 19 voters). By three in the morning this was corrected and Trump was close to 54% to 47% as I wrote these lines.
If we prefer to put the magnifying glass on the last hours we see that bettors continue to go over Donald Trump, who still maintains the majority – now less comfortable; 53.6% to 45.1% – towards Kamala Harris, while the polling aggregator RCP added one tenth to the probability of the blonde and two to the brunette (48.5% to 48.3%) and those of “5.38” kept Trump’s numbers at the morning and they gave a tenth more to Harris (46.9% to 48%) at the same time that the people of The Economist put Trump in first place again, giving him a chance of 51% compared to 49%, thanks to his growth in Arizona.
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This would suggest that there is still a very slight advantage in favor of Donald Trump, at a time when everyone is “suspected” of bias.
Broadly speaking, what is argued is that the Republicans prefer to “punish” their numbers, to scare and mobilize their “hard core” more, and the Democrats preferred to “inflate” them to further motivate less politicized voters (NOTE: there are states where The last registration date was October 10 and others such as Colorado, New York or California allow it until the day of voting).
Given this scenario, the only thing we know for certain is that as the predictions get closer and closer and the result of Tuesday’s election gets closer and closer, the more and more divided North American society will be during the next four years. .
See you tomorrow.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
