With more than tight numbers, USA defines the next president. Kamala Harriscandidate democratand donald trumponce again a candidate for the republicansIn a few hours, they will be the winner and loser of an electoral contest that has the world in suspense. In this context, the markets remain expectant and Argentine investors wonder what to do with their cedars.
The economy of USAafter strong doubts in the previous months, achieved the long-awaited “soft landing”where the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept reference rates high for a long time without entering into recession, in its objective of reducing inflation. And, although it has not yet reached its goal, it seems that it is on the right track. Even the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remains at 2.8% growth.
“It is paradoxical that the Biden administration leaves a satisfactory growth rate and inflation is close to the long-term range of 2% per yearl (more merit of the Fed than of the Executive Branch)”, he told Scope, Pedro Siaba SerrateHead of Research & Strategy at Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI). Likewise, regarding what is to come, he anticipated: “In this situation, the market would prefer that the new administration not substantially modify the paradigm.”
However, analysts maintain that Both candidates offer very expansive economic plans in fiscal matters. In this regard, Siaba Serrate explained that this situation raises doubts regarding its financing because it is probably via debt, which causes discomfort in the bond market, where long Treasury rates increased almost 60 basis points in just over 20 days.
Cedears: what to do in this context, buy, sell or hold?
For Alejandro BianchiFounder of investmentconsultant.comit is important to understand that, to invest in stocks, deadlines must be long because, in itself, these papers describe cycles that can take a long time. “In the short term, it is possible that changes in government in the US could imply some volatility in the indicesadded that to an economy that, although it is far from recession, will moderate its growth from 2.8% to 2.2% in 2025,” he expressed.
In this context, the analyst recalled that the index S&P500at the moment, operates in almost 25 times forward earnings (based on forward P/E ratio), so it seems to him that the current level is “somewhat high.” For those who invest in cedars“We see this as a good time to position ourselves in low beta, high dividend assetsespecially from sectors such as health care health and public services“he recommended.
Among these companies he mentioned Gilead Sciences (GILD), Pfizer (PFE), United Health Group (UNH), AT&T (T), and Verizon (VZ). At the same time, recommended avoiding Cedears from Brazilian companiesdue to the high fiscal deficit (10.02% of GDP) and debt (78%/GDP) that the country has, which impacts the interests, which reached 7.73%. “This situation imposes an exit of investors from Brazil and a certain weakness of the real,” He told this medium, Bianchi.
“The cedars, For me, they are a long-term variable income. If one did not take a prior position, today I do not think it is a day to make any movementunless something very relevant is really seen on the market tomorrow. “We have to wait to see who wins the US elections and to have more information after the results to decide which sectors to invest in or how to reconfigure portfolios,” the economist told this medium. Elena Alonso.
Source: Ambito
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