A survey of Des Moines Registerthe main newspaper of Iowashows that Kamala Harris outstrips donald trump by 47% to 44% among voters, in a new United States elections that are celebrated this Tuesday.
For its part, Robert F.Kennedywho abandoned his campaign to support Trump, but remains on the ballot in that state, would obtain the 3% of the votes.
The surprising thing is that this state was theoretically republicanand Trump had already taken a good advantage there in 2016 against Hilary Clinton.
On the other hand, less than 1% He says he would vote for the Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver1% would vote for someone else, 3% are not sure and the 2% do not want to say who they voted for.
According to what they indicate, this survey has a margin of error of 3.4 pointsand the polls have almost never failed on the spot, only in the percentages.
The importance of Iowa also lies in the fact that has six votes in the Electoral Collegethe same as Nevada, but somewhat less than the rest of the decisive states. This may tip the balance, but perhaps not be decisive.
The same media’s September poll gave Trump a four-point lead over Harris. Then, another carried out in June awarded him a difference of 18 points over the president, Joe Bidenwho was the candidate of Democratic Party then.
Without a doubt, this survey and the change it shows, is the biggest surprise of these American elections to this moment.
How to vote in the United States
The American elections are not like those held in most countries in the world. There, the president is not elected by the total number of votes obtained at the national level, but the system of Electoral college.
Each state makes a contribution of a certain number of voteswhich are distributed based on their population and number of voters. Most of these 50 states They give all of their votes to the candidate who wins in the place
Thus, whoever emerges victorious in California takes the 54 votes of that state, whoever wins in Wyoming takes the three votes that are at stake there, and so on. In short, the essential thing to become president is win at least half plus one of the votes.
The Electoral College is made up of 538 votes in totalso they must obtain at least 270 votes to be the first president of the United States.
But in that number lies the answer, since being an even number, there is the possibility that both candidates get 269 votes and everything ends in tie between democrats and republicans.
How elections are defined in the event of a tie
If it turns out that the two candidates have 269 votes in favor, the new House of Representatives She is in charge of breaking the tie. This is determined by the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution.
The composition of said chamber is also chosen in the votes this Tuesday. Thus, the Lower House would meet in a special session from January 6 to elect the president.
In these sessions, each delegation representing a state would have one vote. So, the candidate who gets 26 votes or morewill be crowned the new president of the United States.
This reflects that, unlike the national elections, in this assembly the weight of California and Wyoming would be exactly the samealthough the first state is much larger in population.
Currently, the Republican sector contains exactly 26 states in the House of Representatives, while the Democrats have 22, and the remaining two are tied. Everything indicates the numbers would not vary so much post-election.
These statistics lead to the assumption that Trump would have a better chance of being president in the event of a tie, given that most states would support him and not Harris.
Source: Ambito
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