Currently, the card dollar is made up of the official dollar plus one 30% COUNTRY tax and another 30% perception on account of Profits and Personal Assets. At the close of trading on Friday, its price was at $1,641.41.
Starting January 1, 2025, that will change. The tax created in 2020 to discourage the demand for foreign currency in the midst of an emergency context comes to an end and the Government knows that it could be detrimental to the BCRA’s reserves, because would be in line with the MEP or CCL quote.
Vacationing “with our own”: the Government’s objective in summer 2025
The objective of the dollar card is to encourage Argentine travelers and consumers who spend in foreign currency to resort to hoarded currencies or financial exchange rates like the MEP, to face its expenses abroad.
Thus, the aim is to ensure that these dollars do not come out of the reserves of the BCRAbut rather that they are exchanged between private parties, without affecting the official coffers.
Come summer, the economic team will evaluate the distance between the card quote and the MEP quote to assume how liquidating MULC dollars is not a preferred option.
In that sense, a member of the economic team of the Minister of Economy Luis Caputo did not deny the possibility of applying a surcharge on the perceptions of Profits or Personal Assetsalthough he did not give further details or lean towards a specific possibility.
“Who said we are going to give away dollars?”: the question of an official from the economic team
During the celebration of the 100 years of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce, a Government official categorically confirmed that the BCRA dollars “they are not going to be given away” and that they will take measures for this purpose, if necessary.
His statements are framed in the middle of a growing concern among economists after the bleeding that the account begins to suffer “services” due to the arrival of the holidays in the summer period.
According to a private report, the balance due to tourism will be negative by almost US$3,000 million.
Although the Government relativizes the idea of having incurred an exchange delay, a recent report from the IERAL of the Mediterranean Foundation warns that, during the first half of this year, outbound tourism already demanded US$3.9 billionand the balance of the tourism balance, net of income from incoming tourism, was negative by US$1.4 billion.
According to the analysis of IERALit is estimated that the demand for dollars for outbound tourism throughout the year is US$7.5 billionwhile the income from incoming tourism are projected in US$4.8 billion.
That is, by 2024 they contemplate a total negative balance of approximately US$2.7 billion.
In addition, one of the main warnings of report focuses on the elimination of COUNTRY tax in 2025.
The report states that “The magnitude of the imbalance could increase, especially next summer.”when the exchange rate and the elimination of the tax “further encourage Argentines to travel abroad.”
Naturally, IERAL foresees that the greatest imbalance will occur in the first quarter of next yearwhere the high holiday season takes place.
An indicator that warns of the deepening of this dynamic is the increase in searches for tourist options on the internet.
According to the study, Searches related to outbound tourism grew by 54% year-on-year in September, while those associated with domestic tourism fell 15%.
Brazil, the most sought after destination for Argentinians to vacation
The tourist platform Despegar itself indicated that the searches to travel in December, January and February increased by 136% nationally and 108% internationallycompared to the average recorded in May, June and July.
In such a way, 50% of international searches are concentrated in Brazil. Within the bordering country, Rio de Janeiro It is presented as the city that arouses the greatest interest, representing 40% of clicks on international destinations.
On the other hand, IERAL also adds that the tourism not only affects the balance of payments, but also the sector that provides internal tourist activities.
How the bleeding of dollars impacts tourist activity
The report estimates that around 7% of private employment registered in Argentina depends on this activity, which already registers an accumulated loss of 2.2% in jobs.
“If the exchange rate does not offer conditions to improve competitiveness and begins to provide incentives for the growth of outbound tourism, “It will be vital to accelerate the achievement of cost reductions through other means.”concludes the report.
The Government is making progress in obtaining financing to get out of the trap
Aware of the warnings described above, the Government also bet on the entry of fresh dollars into the BCRA coffers. In that sense, it ensures that the economic team continues negotiating for the completion of a REPO on the one hand, and advances with the IMF, on the other.
“There are banks that offer us money and ask us, ‘Should we leave?’, but we We prefer to wait until conditions continue to improve to reduce the risk margin,” a source explained in voiceover, during the meeting at the CAC.
The president of the entity, Natalio Mario Grinmanbegan the event with a speech in which he assured that “the ideas of freedom are the same ones that have made leading nations prosperous.”
He was followed by the head of the Buenos Aires government, Jorge Macri and the President of the Nation concluded, Javier Mileiwho stated that ““the recession is over” and? “The country has finally started to grow.”
Source: Ambito
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