The oil provinces They lead the recovery of the purchasing power of salaries due to the momentum generated by the development of Vaca Muerta. “At a global level, economic activity in the country fell sharply at the end of the year and, as of March/April 2024, it has been recovering slightly, heterogeneously in terms of sectors. Worse, the industry that is not based on agriculture, and better, mining and the agricultural sector,” said a report.
The report clarified that ““The recovery has also been heterogeneous in the Argentine regions.” Thus, the Mediterránea Foundation developed an indicator that determined that, “in August 2023, a ceiling is reached” in the purchasing power of the private wage bill, “and then it will decrease until March 2024 (-8% at the level). national).
“From there, the wage bill has been recovering little by little, more due to salaries than employment“said the report signed by economist Jorge Day.
Which province is leading the recovery of salaries
According to the data collected, the best positioned province was Neuquén “which has been the star for a few years, thanks to the oil boost associated with Vaca Muerta.” This situation also It helped Río Negro and Chubut, while, in Mendoza, there was also a better improvement due to a larger grape harvest.
“The large provinces, Córdoba, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, are those that determine the national average. If they did relatively better thanks to a larger grain harvest, then the average is further away from the small provinces,” he indicated.
He also added that “several of these small jurisdictions are highly dependent on national fundsespecially, discretionary transfers that were reduced to a minimum, which is why they appear to have a worse performance in terms of wages.”
“In this less favored group are several provinces in northern Argentina, with the notable exception of Salta. Tierra del Fuego has also been affected, seeing a decrease in the production of imported substitute industrial products,” the document added.
A consequence of a The lower purchasing power of the population is the lower sales. In general, the northern provinces also had worse performance in commerce, for example, auto and motorcycle supermarkets.
Which sectors could stand out in salaries for the coming months
“At the macroeconomic level, For the next few months, two positive factors appear; on the one hand, the economic recovery that has been gradual. On the other hand, when the official dollar lags behind inflationsalaries and, therefore, sales in the domestic market are recovered. This would be a point in favor for the entire country,” the work considered.
However, he warned that there is “a question about what will happen to the factors that generated the regional differences. Some of these can be considered transitory, for example, the grain harvest in the Pampas region; “After a bad 2023, it recovered the following year, but an increase of the same magnitude is not expected for 2025.”
“Others factors could continue to grow, such as the case of oil and mining. The high performance of unconventional oil exploitation is known. And to that would be added the advantages of RIGI, a program that promotes large investments in regions especially associated with hydrocarbons and mining,” the Foundation considered.
Regarding discretionary transfers, he estimated that “It is possible that the national government will maintain its policy of keeping them at a minimum. Although it will complicate jurisdictions that have few resources to develop their economic activity, it can be considered a transitory phenomenon, because these transfers cannot continue to fall further.”
“Therefore, for the next few months, At a global level, this recovery of the population’s purchasing power is expected to continue.. Possibly the factors that favor the oil and mining provinces will also continue,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
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