According to data published by the SAGPyA, beef consumption fell in the first nine months of the year to an average of 47.3 kilos per capita. What variables does the sector observe?
On the eve of Christmas, the livestock sector analyzes the possibility of rebuilding the beef prices in December. However, a report analyzes the relationship between income and inflation and states that this update will be limited.
A report from the Rosario Stock Exchange took data from the Institute for the Promotion of Argentine Beef (IPCVA) for the month of September, and stated that both beef, pork and poultry in the last twelve months recorded price increases below inflation. The price of chicken and pork breast had a year-on-year variation of 176% and 173% respectively, while the average price of the different cuts of beef reached 149% year-on-year, with only 33% in the first ten months of this year.
Consumption shifts towards lower value products
It happens that, faced with this scenario of tight pockets, Consumption tends to replace foods with substitutes of lower value. This is precisely what has been observed in meat consumption, where the purchase ratio between a kilo of roast and a kilo of chicken is almost 3 to 1 while the ratio against pork breast fluctuates around 1.5. kilo. Therefore, despite being the protein whose price is most behind inflation, lBeef is the one with the greatest drop in terms of apparent consumption in the last year.
According to data published by the SAGPyA, Beef consumption fell in the first nine months of the year to an average of 47.3 kilos per capita, which represents more than an 11% drop compared to the same date in 2023, compared to chicken consumption that in the same period contracted by less than 2% and pork consumption that in this context was sustained, even marking a slight growth.
How can the increase in meat prices occur?
In this context, the BCR stated that the adjustment in meat prices can occur in two ways:
- Substantial improvement in the purchasing capacity of the local consumer, responsible for more than 70% of the total demand for meat
- Significant contraction in the level of available supply.
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For the BCR, the last variable is “unfeasible” given the high level of occupation that the feedlots still present, added to the important recomposition of the pastoral systems.
Regarding consumption, beyond the fact that every year the bonus impacts consumption at the end of the year, “l“The main analysts do not currently project a significant recomposition of real income until after the first quarter of next year.”
Source: Ambito
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