The Government has not yet formally requested a new agreement with Kristalina Georgieva. The data, confirmed to Ámbito by Washington sources in the last few hours, invites us to take Minister Luis Caputo’s speculative statements with caution.
The Casa Rosada seems to hope that the full weight of the Trumpist wave will fall or, rather, that the impact of the appointments of the next cabinet of President-elect Donald Trump will have a devastating effect on international organizations, mainly the Fund. There are revealing data that seem to indicate that this strategy – waiting a few more days before entering into a give and take with the IMF – is bearing fruit.
Luis Caputo has come to maintain, in recent days, that The Government is in talks with the organization. “With the IMF we have started talking about a new program. We are probably going to go to a new program and it will surely involve new money. We are discussing two things, how much money it is and how that money will come in. It is not the same that they disburse you US$1,000 million at the beginning, that they enter US$12,000 million,” he said in an interview.
However, a consultation by sources linked to the (lukewarm) negotiations in Washington reveals that That instance has not yet led to a formal request. In fact, sources maintain that the new round of talks is in a preliminary stage and, attention, that the Ministry of Finance seems to be in no hurry. “We believe that the Argentine government remains waiting for the arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency, since it senses that some kind of additional help may come from there, some management that blurs the iron limits of the statutes,” they maintained.
Bidenomics, Donald Trump and the apology for mileism
In the last hours, Two facts deserve mention and push the hypothesis explained above.. On the one hand, investor and hedge fund manager Scott Bessent was nominated by Donald Trump to lead the Treasury Secretary to replace current Secretary Janet Yellen, perhaps one of the most powerful positions on the planet after the one he occupies the Oval Office. from the White House.
On the other hand, it was Bessent himself who, in a kind of premature revisionism, He praised President Javier Milei and, in the same act, criticized Peronismwhich he compared on social media to the administration of outgoing President Joe Biden. “Biden is chaining the American economy to debt. “I call it ‘Bidenism,'” he said in a debate broadcast on television.
And he added: “It is “Bidenism” and I think it is fortuitous that today we have the president of Argentina speaking and explaining what ruined his country: Peronism.” But he continued: “Bidenism is the beginning of Peronism. It is the State keeping control of the means of production and greatly increasing the debt,” said the future minister.
Bessent a little help to the IMF and the request to remove Powell
The Government is excited. The signal given to the markets – the appointment of Bessent – could push asset prices on Wall Street even further and, in particular, Argentine bonds, and generate an additional reduction in country risk. Bessent is a man of the marketssomething that should have a positive impact among investors. At 62 years old, he comes from advising Trump on economic policy during the campaign. The president-elect claims that his Treasury candidate is a defender of “ordinary people” and national industry. He is founder of the investment fund Key Square Capital Management and was the chief investment officer of Soros Fund Management. With a strong past in defending tax cuts, Bessent comes from publicly asking Trump to remove the chairman of the Federal Reserve next year (one year before Jerome Powell’s term expires).
Will Trump and Bessent have a gesture with Argentina? It must be remembered that the United States Treasury Department serves as that country’s representative in numerous international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank or the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). In translation, Bessent’s word could be decisive in unblocking the future agreement between Argentina and the IMF.
Still, there is a question that must be asked. Bessent has just maintained in a recent opinion article published in the Wall Street Journal, that “Trump’s election fueled the dollar’s biggest single-day gain in more than two years, and the third biggest in the last decade”. It’s more. He maintained that he told Trump “the dollar loves you and we continue to increase the after-tax yield on American assets, and it will continue to do so.”
“Long-term interest rates are falling even with this growth shock,” Bessent said. “Tax cuts, deregulation, energy dominance, interest rates are actually going down, and the dollar is still going up.”
What benefit could an era of a strong dollar in the world bring to Argentina? The return of Donald Trump to the White House and the recent appointment of Bessent, could trigger a reflation processthat is, a return of inflationary pressure in the United States leveraged by the new president’s next economic policy.
There are numerous arguments that could herald a new cycle of inflation in the United States. The first, taxes. But also the increase in tariffs and the plan to expand public spending (deficit). Trump’s promises accelerated a moderation in expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED), which tipped a rise in Treasury bond yields, something bad for bond market yields. emerging. Thus, while the US government’s cabinet seems to be filled with political references laudatory of the Mileist administration, its policies in portfolio – and the expectation that they will be applied starting in January – could negatively impact the Argentine economic cycle and the local financial front.
Source: Ambito
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