He dollar It closed the month at 43,158 pesos and is at its highest value in more than two and a half years, the product of a notable appreciation so far this year, with eight consecutive monthly increases.
Although the improvement in the accumulated annual figure is 10.6%, when analyzing the value of the greenback from its lowest point in the year, the increase is even greater and exceeds any market forecast, removing the ghosts of the exchange delay.
He dollar reached its minimum point in 2024 on March 26, remaining at 37,507 pesos, according to the price of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). Therefore, when comparing this value with the current one, an increase of 15.07% in eight months is evident.
The path of the dollar in 2024
The contrast is notable, since in March it closed its worst monthly performance, with a decrease of 3.83%. Since then, the us currency It operated upwards: in the second quarter, it was an increase of 2.04% in April, 1.24% in May and 3.09% in June, when it reached 40 pesos.
In July and August, the improvements were more attenuated, of 0.71% and 0.15%, while in September it accumulated a recovery of 3.24% to exceed 41 pesos, in the heat of uncertainty due to the plebiscite of the PIT-CNTabout the social security.
Finally, after an almost neutral balance in October, but positive in the order of 0.02%, its most auspicious month of the year arrived, with the increase of 3.62% in November, which catapulted the dollar above 43 pesos , something that has not happened since February 2022.
The factors that contributed to the appreciation
Several factors were added to the volatility linked to the eventual approval of the plebiscite, whose ghost is now far away. The most sustained was the depreciation of real in Brazil, a reference currency for the Uruguayan peso, which recently hit its all-time high amid challenges on the fiscal front that the government of Lula da Silva.
In this regard, CPA economist Ferrere, Nazareno Sánchez, considered that the fall of the real “could be influencing the behavior of the Uruguayan peso and anticipated that “the outlook for emerging currencies suggests greater volatility in the coming months.”
This adds to the local issue, with some uncertainty associated with which cabinet the president-elect will define. Yamandu Orsi after his victory in the runoff and possible measures. On this point, the managing partner of Gastón Bengochea & Cía. Stockbroker, Diego Rodriguez, He assured that there may be “some fears about how disciplined the fiscal policy may be for the next government,” although he trusted that “they will be clarified as some announcements are made.”
A third factor is linked to the strength of the global dollar, something that was pronounced after the triumph of donald trump in the elections of USA and that could be accentuated according to the initiatives that it plans to promote, which could even lead to a pause in the rate cut cycle of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
