But as the host, a legendary former Argentine private banker with close ties to the PRO, commented, the one who benefited from this record has been the BlackRock ETF“iShares Bitcoin Trust”, which surpassed $50 billion in assets under management, achieving this mark in just over 225 days, five times faster than any other ETF in history. And speaking of the largest fund in the world, there was also a lot of comment on the purchase that Larry Fink closed of HPS Investment Partners for about $12 billion, with BlackRock shares.
The proximity with Brazil It also made it occupy part of the evening. Over there, Argentine financiers agreed that what worried them most was not that the exchange rate in Brazil would escalate, already above 6 reais per dollar, but that the Brazilian economy would not enter a recession, because that would have an impact on Argentina.. For now, the Brazilian devaluation only benefits Argentine touriststhe rest will be seen with the future of imports from that origin.
A conclave between those close to the economic team provided an overview of “how they saw it”: on the one hand, Trump’s return to the US presidency is seen as the necessary extension of the bridge to move to the elections with the current economic policy scheme; On the other hand, the supply of dollars activated by the “carry trade” and the low cost of borrowing is what allows the Central Bank (BCRA) to continue buying dollars in the exchange market (since the laundering it has accumulated almost 2.6 billion dollars ), thus extending the investment in pesos.
In this sense, one of the most heard questions was how many currencies will have to be used to sustain the intervened and compressed gap in the event of a probable disarmament of the blend dollar. One exchange trader noted that “argendollars” (which increased more than 14,000 million dollars since mid-August) had been accumulating almost 15 consecutive rounds of withdrawals after the end of stage 1 of the money laundering, totaling almost 1,600 million dollars.
He exchange delay It was also on the menu of the meeting and one of the most veterans turned to the prestigious Ernesto Gaba with whom he exchanged views on whether the appreciation of the peso was here to stay. The emeritus professor reminded him that the multilateral real exchange rate (TCRM) compares the prices and nominal exchange rate of Argentina with those in force in trading partner countries, so if the current TCRM is greater (lesser) than the average TCRM Over a long period, the difference indicates the size of the exchange rate depreciation (appreciation). So, according to this indicator, the peso would appreciate 30% against the dollar; However, he explained that two causes support that the equilibrium exchange rate is lower than that suggested by the average TCRM: Argentina goes from chronic fiscal deficit to surplus indicating a change of regime, and oil and gas exports are also growing. for the extraordinary potential of Vaca Muerta contributing to the balance of payments surplus. Therefore, the conclusion is that the strength of the peso with respect to the dollar and other currencies would be more permanent as long as the next elections do not reintroduce the economic ideology of living with our own.. For listeners, if this is so, it is important that economic agents accept this reality and begin to move their production factors towards more competitive sectors.
The end-of-year cocktail party organized by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private arm of the World Bank, under the motto “Unlocking Argentina’s Potential” was very lively, but without a doubt the one that garnered the most attention and was the epicenter of comments was that of the people of Costantini at Malba where he brought together almost 300 investor clients – corporate, institutional, individual – for the end of the year cocktail and to present to them, in society, the new brand of the financial group in which Consultatio and TPCG: One618, The art of finance (although the ALyCs remain the same, without merging).
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As usual, Don Eduardo livened up the evening with a traditional guided tour of the museum, triple A catering and the guests did not leave empty-handed, but instead took a Veuve Clicquot while they googled the meaning of the number and remembered that it was the golden number The topic of Brazil was among the talks of the guests, especially at the end of the event in the villages of Figueroa Alcorta, where the consensus was that Knowing that the BCRA is not going to modify the official exchange rate to keep the peso-real relationship constant, for now, tourists and importers celebrate.
It is also difficult to speculate with export subsidies, tariff restrictions, or others, for merchandise coming from that country, therefore, they understand that Brazil’s devaluation creates a challenge for the Argentine private sectorexposed to the international ties of the main commercial partner. The question is whether the recent increase in the exchange rate in Brazil is a reflection of the present and future of its economic policy, that is, will it go to 5.75, remain at 6 or go to 6.50. A trio continued the evening in a house in Barrio Parque where the host had just participated in a JP Morgan conference on Brazil and what they took away from there was that: there may be benefits from the intensification of the Trump administration’s trade war 2.0 , replacing part of what the US exports to China in the agricultural segment, especially grains; Furthermore, the world population continues to grow and will need energy and food, and this can also be good for Brazil.
As for the energy sectorthe fact is that cryptocurrencies and AI consume and will consume much more energy in the coming years, including water, another big trend in which Brazil will be well positioned; While the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union would be good for both, even for the EU to expand markets, Trump’s victory and the problems it should generate for Europe end up encouraging an agreement with Mercosur; The relationship between Brazil and China is going very well, especially in areas such as food, energy, Brazil is one of the few countries that has a trade surplus with China; about USA The surprise of the inflationary jump may induce the Fed to raise rates again, but there is no consensus, but it is a risk; while the economy remains strong and companies seem to have been waiting for the elections and improvements can now be seen in investment and production surveys. One of the guests commented that the rise of the region made, for example, Goldman Sachs continue to expand its Latin American team, targeting the regional fixed income business. The most recent addition would have been that of Juan Ocampo, former Gramercy Funds Management, who will lead the businesses. structured credit. With this pass, there would be six new vice presidents throughout the region.
In another Buenos Aires event, between managers, operators and businessmen, politics got involved and someone close to the North American embassy explained to his interlocutors the meaning of the participation of Lara Trump at the CPAC meeting, which curiously neither the media nor the market seemed to have taken note of the significance. It happens that Lara, daughter-in-law of the president-elect, is the figure with the best image of the Trump clan and holds the highest position in the Republican Party, which demonstrates Donald’s will in the relationship with Javier Milei.
There was not much talk about polls but rather about Congress and the conclusion was reached that the libertarian President has already decided to extend the Budget to 2025 to avoid a point-by-point discussion, leaving the issue of the STEP and the clean slate for let the politicians entertain themselves.
It made a lot of noise that former president Cristina Kirchner introduced the issue of a constitutional reform, almost playing into Milei’s hands. A political scientist, when consulted about the social situation, pointed out that social movements are betting on the theory of “the ripe pear”, that the unrest will increase and accumulate until it explodes, but they know that there is a long way to go.
A banker was commenting to colleagues about the fall in the stock of LEFI in the banks of more than 3.1 billion pesos while the balance of LEFI in private hands fell to just over 4.6 billion pesos, according to speculation something would be associated with the liquidation of the Treasury tender and some could be seasonal movements of the minimum cash. It happens, the banker explained, that the liquidity in pesos of the system is a relevant issue and the stock of LEFI is a variable to monitor in the coming weeks, given the seasonality of the demand for money. Next Wednesday the 11th the Treasury’s last tender of the year the same day that the information of November CPIeveryone took note.
In another end-of-year gathering, the people from Wealth Management at the Mariva group went for something different and invited a select group of clients to enjoy an immersive experience in the captivating world of the renowned Argentine visual artist and sculptor, Nicola Costantino, recognized for her provocative and significant works. During the meeting, guests had the opportunity to enter Nicola’s unique universe, full of exotic flowers, intriguing shapes and fascinating flavors, said one of the participants.
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As can be seen, the issue of the stocks practically no longer figures in the conversations, and as long as the local financial dynamics are sustained even in a slightly more hostile world, with a country risk of 750 points and an exchange rate gap below 10%, the bondholders of celebration.
Thus, with fewer forward payments and some pending disbursements from international organizations, the purchase of dollars from the BCRA will go directly to the net reserves, so if the current pace is sustained, the net reserves could be around 3.5 billion negative dollars for March, EcoGo predicts those who warn that the October current account deficit of almost 1.6 billion dollars is swollen by the transfer of interest to BONY for the January payment (the financial account exchange rate was a surplus of more than 3.1 billion dollars).
Now, the most select are preparing to go to the last EMTA meeting of the year in New York where Claudio Irigoyen (BofA) and Joyce Chang (JP Morgan) will lead the panels that will discuss the outlook for emerging market debt in 2025. Among Speakers include Gabriel Casillas (Barclays), Amer Bisat (BlackRock), Dirk Willer (Citi), Drausio Giacomelli (Deutsche Bank), Alberto Ramos (Goldman Sachs), Hari Hariharan (NWI Management), Cathy Hepworth (PGIM) and Samy Muaddi (T. Rowe Price).
In this regard, the vision of the emblematic investor Mark Mobius has resonated a lot in the emerging environment, who believes that the most significant impact of a Trump presidency on emerging markets would be the distancing of dependence on China, by encouraging other nations to intervene as US suppliers, Trump’s policies could open the doors to the economies of Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America.
Source: Ambito
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