“We want people, instead of demanding pesos, to transact directly in dollars to avoid a more accelerated depreciation of the exchange rate,” Milei explained.
In this context, a consulting firm analyzed the panorama and proposed three potential scenarios for the future of the exchange market. For LCG, these are the alternatives:
For LCG, the two most possible scenarios are 1 and 2, the difference lies in “what the market reads regarding the combination of a deterioration in the external trade flow – including tourism – and the possibility of favorable news in stocks. ”.
Milei pointed out that there is apressure for the dollar to continue falling, driven both by the generation of foreign currency from the agricultural sector and by the energy sector, which next year could register a surplus of more than US$10 billion.
“Since we have decided to keep the amount of money fixed, we cannot intervene to support the exchange rate. Therefore, our “The objective is for people to transact directly in dollars.”he explained. Furthermore, he recognized that it is unlikely that a deflation process will occur that would allow companies to improve their competitiveness.
Milei’s latest measures with the dollar
In recent days, some measures have been taken that aim to avoid a greater depreciation of the exchange rate and consequent appreciation of the peso. The lowering of rates, for example, aimed to reduce the “carry trade” in pesos and generated an at least marginal increase in dollars.
Previously, exporters had been allowed to delay the entry of foreign currency, lengthening the deadlines currently in force. And service exporters were also allowed to enter up to US$36,000 without having to go through the exchange market. Although it is not a measure that will generate a great immediate impact, “It clearly marks a trend towards reducing obstacles in the exchange market.”
Finally, he reiterated that the idea is to get out of the exchange rate trap and made it clear that what is holding up that decision so far are the negative reserves. Thus, he clarified that for this, negotiations will be carried out with the IMF and eventually also with banks.
Source: Ambito
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