He blue dollar It is currently at $1,190 for sale. It is about the eighth rise consecutive, and in particular this Wednesday it scales $25 and accumulates a rise of $85 in three days. So, It operates at its highest value since October 14 and is one step away from reaching $1,200. Meanwhile, the gap with the wholesale dollar widened to 16.32%. Given this, the city asks itself: is it close to its ceiling or how high can it go?
As for the causes, Federico Glusteinin conversation with Scopeassured: “The factors are mainly seasonal. Vacations plus bonus plus bonuses are an explosive cocktail for the demand for foreign currency and even more so now that we were with an exchange rate delay after devaluation of the real.”
Regarding how long this process can last, he expressed that “it generally continues until mid-January where the impact of demand decreases and stabilizes although it may mark a new floor“. “Today we can affirm that the official dollar with taxes it’s still higher but It is the ceiling that marks the parallel quotes even if it is very high,” he defined.
At this time, the dollar card is found in the $1,668although it already has a date of expirationgiven that December 23 is removed in its entirety the COUNTRY taxwhich implies that it will no longer weigh on the price of purchases in foreign currency from abroad and for local consumption but in dollars.
“Without a doubt today the floor is at $1,120/$1,130 with a trajectory to $1,150. It will depend a lot on several factors in addition to demand, such as inflation of the month, the outflow of deposits and the effect of the real,” he added. Glustein.
The economist Joel Lupierialso in a conversation with this medium, agrees with the causes: “There is a seasonal demand in December, since there is a need for dollars to go abroad. This is because Argentina has shown a significant exchange delay in dollars and then what was expensive compared to other countries in the region particularly with Brazil or even with some European countries”
“On the other hand, given the decline in COUNTRY taxwill make you almost indifferent deliver the dollars by hand or spend with the card“In recent times, “the gap has become increasingly narrower, so it is possible that there is also a factor that explains the evolution in the price of the illegal exchange rate.
However, the expert explained that he does not believe that the reduction of the PAIS tax will generate “such a significant blow” with respect to the price of blue. For Lupieri, the causes of the increase lie elsewhere, “a seasonal factor and is more related to the tendency of Argentines to carry banknotes abroad.”
As for the floor, he said that it is given by the value of the official dollar, but the blend (it is the exchange rate with which the exportarods settle, 20% through the dollar counted with settlement, and 80% to the official dollar). At this time the blend dollar is located in the $1,042.91.
For his part, for Leonardo Anzalone, there is four causes well defined, and reviewed them: “The recent reduction in the interest rate impacts the exchange rate. We believe that the intention behind this decision was to put upward pressure on the exchange rate gap, which was at historically low levels; Seasonal demand since as the holidays approach, “Many people begin to dollarize to plan their trips abroad.”
The third, as mentioned above, the dynamics of the real and emerging markets because in recent weeks, BBrazil faces fiscal turbulence that caused a devaluation of the real. “A more competitive Brazil puts pressure on our exchange rate,” he highlighted and finally, the closure of the carry trade. “Since July, the exchange gap fell abruptly. Those who bet on instruments in pesos, such as Lecaps, achieved extraordinary returns in dollars,” he concluded. For him, $1230 could be a target by technical analysis.
Source: Ambito
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