The Treasury bought US$1,930 million from the Central Bank and dollar deposits rose to US$5,698 million, an amount that will allow the Government to meet the Bonares and Globales maturities for the month of January, which in total represent US$3. 296 million. The information is from December 16 to 19, the last known data.
According to PPI, after this payment, the Treasury will have about US$2.4 billion left, as long as the net balance with other multilateral organizations is not negative in the interim. “In addition to showing willingness to pay creditors, the “monetary” explanation would be that the BCRA would want to keep the Broad Monetary Base (sum of Monetary Base, LEFIs in the hands of the banks and Treasury deposits in the BCRA in pesos) below of the limit of $47.7 billion, the way to achieve it is to reduce the Treasury’s peso deposits in the BCRA (to convert them to dollars). With the latest operations, the BMA stands at $46.67 billion,” the analysts explained.
On the other hand, PPI calculates that these purchases impact net reserves, but not on the liquidity of the BCRA.
“Net reserves, which take Treasury deposits in the BCRA as liabilities, closed November at -US$9,601 million, and were -US$10,364 million as of 12/19 (BOPREAL payments are considered liabilities). twelve months ahead). It is worth noting that a large part of the explanation for the net earnings to remain negative is that Treasury dollar deposits of US$5,698 million are deducted. Otherwise, this deduction is not made, net reserves closed November at -US$6,041 million and reached an estimated -US$4,666 million as of 12/19, last but not least, considering the capacity of intervention of the BCRA both in the MULC and in financial dollars, the BCRA’s liquid reserves closed November at US$13,237 million and are at an estimated US$15,504 million, the most increases since December 2022 (US$16,423 million)”, they detail.
Treasury debt: what maturities must be covered
In turn, the consulting firm Aurum specified that “Treasury dollar deposits in the BCRA are equivalent to 82% of the total maturities in dollars with the private sector for the entire year 2025.”
Total maturities are estimated at almost US$7,000 million, of which US$5,700 million are already deposited in the Treasury account at the BCRA. This debt is the most relevant for the Government, since it is expected that There are no major problems for the renewal of obligations with the IMF and the repayment of quotas with international organizations.
Total maturities with private companies in 2025
The total debt commitments for 2025 are close to US$15 billion, of which a third must be paid in the first months of the year. In the first weeks of 2025, There will be payments of US$5,000 million. Holding Treasury dollars in the BCRA is key to facing these payments.
According to a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CPO) in January 2025, payment commitments include:
– AL29, AL30 Bonds; AL45, AL38 and AL41 for US$1,226 million in capital and US$473 million in interest.
– Global bonds in euros by US$114 million of capital and US$55 million of interest.
– Global bonds in dollars (GL29, 30, 35, 38, 41 and 46) for US$1,475 million in capital and US$998 in interest.
– There are also expirations with multilateral organizations by US$300 million of capital and US$158 million of interest. Institutions such as the IDB or the World Bank are expected to make already scheduled disbursements of agreed credits that would offset these payments. In turn, interest on bills in dollars from the Central Bank must be added for US$202 million.
To these maturities in dollars, are added maturities in pesos during January $14.8 billion between principal and interest of different bonds and bills.
Among them, the expirations of: a dual bond for $8.9 billion. A Lecap of $2.8 billion, another for $1.7 billion and a temporary advance from the BCRA to the Treasury of $647,000 million. It is estimated that a good part of this debt in pesos will try to be refinanced with the placement of new securities.
Source: Ambito
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