The phrase “inflation is annihilated” It is part of the menu of concepts developed by President Javier Milei and his followers on social networks. But, strictly speaking, in light of what “normality” is The Government is still far from ending the battle.
You just have to take into account that drilling the 2% floor can take at least seven months, If the current conditions of the economy are maintained, basically the monthly devaluation rate of 2%. That is to say, A stage was entered in which the cuts would be less spectacular.
According to the analysis According to the experts who participate in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank, the monthly inflation floor could not be broken until May.. In that month, consultants predict that it may drop to 1.9%. It is worth remembering that in October it rose to 2.7%, thus breaking the 3.5% of September.
Inflation: lower expectations
The Market Expectations Survey in December adjusted its expectations downwards. “This correction was expected, since in November the REM had overestimated general inflation by 0.4 points,” says the Stock Exchange company Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).
“For December, the ‘view’ of a slight inflationary acceleration, which would be linked to the typical seasonality of the rhythm of retail prices,” he indicates in a report.
PPI adds that “headline inflation is seen accelerating to 2.7% (in December) from 2.4% in November, However, the core, which excludes seasonal and regulated prices from its measurement and is a reflection of the inflationary trend, is expected to cut the margin to 2.6% compared to 2.7% in November.
So, The REM predicts that inflation will be 2.5% in January, 2.3% in February, 2.3% in March and 2% in April. “What is relevant with respect to the November survey is that it now expects that starting in May inflation will break the 2% monthly threshold, slowing to 1.9% in May and 1.8% in June”, notes the report.
The inflation period with a 2% floor started in the last quarter of 2024which compared to the beginning of the year in which inflation was running at 20% monthly, is an important achievement and a strong relief for families.
But an increase in the CPI at a rate of 2% monthly average is still high when compared to the inflation of other countries in the region. The accumulated between October 2024 and April 2025 is 18%, the equivalent of the 12-month inflation estimated by the Ministry of Economy for the 2025 Budget.
January inflation
Far from slowing down, after the fourth week of December, a time in the year when expenses increase due to the end-of-year holidays, prices seem to have done just the opposite. According to private estimates, inflation in the first week of January rose 1% compared to the end of 2024. According to the consulting firm Equilibra, the average of the last four weeks gave an increase of 2.3% while the projection for the first month of the year is 2.3%.
Source: Ambito
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