He red circle You already made your bets: 2025 is the year of the lion and not by the Chinese horoscope. After a tough 2024, with a marked recession, the establishment is playing for itself again Javier Milei and is “enthusiastic” about the country’s situation moving forward. 92% of the sector believes that It is possible that La Libertad Avanza (LLA) wins the midterm election. Meanwhile, the evaluation of the current economic situation is widely higher than a year ago and the economic perspective going forward is more stable.
These data arise from the survey of leaders and opinion formers in Argentina made by Polyarchy Consultants in which 180 personalities participated. Among them, national, provincial and local leaders; entrepreneurs; journalists and communicators; academics and researchers from public and private universities; consultants and professionals.
Support to the Government
Leaders’ positive assessment of the country’s overall situation in 2024 shows strong recovery and scores its second highest level (52%) since 2008. This change shows a break with respect to the last six years, during which the positive evaluation did not exceed 10%. The last positive evaluation above this figure was in 2016, the first year of Mauricio Macri’s administration.
Furthermore, the 85% of those surveyed consider that the situation in the country improved compared to a year ago and that Prospects in the next twelve months will be positive (70%). Meanwhile, 5% see a more negative future and 21% the same.
Macroeconomic projections
2023 was not a good year for the Argentine economy, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to have fallen 2.6%according to the last survey of market expectations which publishes the Central Bank (BCRA). By 2025, leaders and opinion makers expect it to rebound by an average of 4.4%, while the inflation They projected it at around 29% annually, while the market expected it to be 25.9%.
As for the official exchange rate42% of those surveyed consider that the best thing for the economy is to carry out a new devaluation of the exchange rate, although only 21% believe that it is possible. It should be noted that this year is an election, so political forces are more reluctant to depreciate the local currency, since the purchasing power of Argentines is also devalued. By the end of 2025, leaders and opinion makers expect the official dollar to be $1,428 per peso, on average..
image.png
Exchange stocks
One of the president’s campaign promises Javier Milei is he disarming of the stockswhich although it became more flexible last year, could not be fully lifted. In this scenario, half of the leaders believe that all exchange restrictions will be lifted before the elections, while 40% consider that it will happen afterwards. Only 4 out of 10 leaders consider that the restrictions should be lifted immediately.
Another of the critical points regarding the economic direction has to do with the new agreement with IMFwhich the Government negotiates. Almost all of those interviewed believe that it will be achieved before the elections: 35% consider that it will involve new disbursements greater than US$10,000 millionwhile 50% maintain that the funds will be less than that figure and 10% believe that the agreement will not involve more money.
Elections 2025: almost everyone expects a victory for LLA
After the setback of 2023 and in the midst of strong internal conflicts in the PRO and Peronism, the 92% of leaders and opinion formers believe that LLA will win the midterm elections; 40% think they will win widely, while the remaining 52% believe it will be by a limited margin.
image.png
Regarding a possible agreement between LLA and the PRO after the flight of leaders towards the official space, opinions are divided: 43% believe that an alliance is possible, while 42% do not see it as feasible. Regarding Peronism, 72% of those surveyed consider that Cristina Fernández de Kirchner She will be a candidate in the Province of Buenos Aires.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
