After an extraordinary 2024 compared to a meager 2023, the real estate market bets on a prosperous 2025, since they trust in the “potential” of the sector, which It is still very far from its historical highs. For perspective, During the past year, the sales value measured per square meter (M2) rose 6.8% in the City and was located at US$2,325, this is a 8.1% above the minimum marked in June 2023according to the survey of Zonaprop.
Among the factors that could influence the improvement of the market, the following stand out: UVA mortgage loanswhich was last year’s workhorse, but which in recent months saw a rise in rates, which generated stagnation. Furthermore, for there to be a sustained demand for credit, a salary updatewhich allows improving purchasing power, even at a significant level.
Another debt that still exists with the sector has to do with the credits allocated to developments under construction or “well”which is estimated to be another important boost for the real estate market.
Real estate market: how much does macroeconomics affect it?
And a crucial factor that cannot be left out is economic and exchange stability, which generate confidence and predictability. In recent months, the decline in the inflation rate has shown how important it is to have predictability, not only in investments but in daily life.
“Confidence in the country and a clear and defined economic direction are equally important. Without these conditions, it will be difficult for both people and investors to maintain their interest and commitment to the real estate market,” he highlighted in dialogue with Scope, Ezequiel Wierzbaof WGW Developments.
“For the market to have an active dynamic during 2025, it is important that there is not a very abrupt price increase that is not accompanied by a demand that validates it. On the other hand, it is essential that there continues to be exchange stability and constant improvement of the macroeconomic variables, as well as the improvement in real wages,” he reflected Soledad Balayanholder of Maure Real Estate.
Alan Mohadebpartner of CEK Group and Grupo Libertador, considered: “the combination of macroeconomic stability, incentives for investment and the tradition of brick as a refuge of value project a year of sustained expansion in the real estate sector.”
Mortgage loans and loans for apartments under construction
Although the UVA mortgage loans were crucial for the improvement of the sector, today stagnation is observed mainly due to the increase in rates. So much so that, in the behavior of loans, it was noted that, after sustained growth for five months, going from $850 million to more than $58,000 million weekly in disbursements, the last days of November saw a fluctuation with a drop of 13% and stood at $51,000 million weekly, according to the analysis of the Urban Fabric Foundation.
“It is crucial that loans for used apartments continue, but without significant increases in interest ratesso that they continue to be a real option for those looking for their first home or an investment,” Wierzba added.
Although certain difficulties are evident in sustaining the financing rate, affected by liquidity restrictions in the financial system, in December, banks granted loans for US$240 millionthe largest registration since 2019, they mentioned from the foundation.
In this sense, the developer highlighted the importance of improve the purchasing power of families so that they “continue looking for credits” and “betting on the purchase of properties.” “Without adequate purchasing power, many families will be left out of access to financing, limiting demand and development of the sector,” the specialist emphasized.
Credits for construction works
The National Securities Commission (CNV) regulated a new regulation that seeks facilitate access to mortgage credit for the purchase of homes under construction or “under construction”. The measure will allow buyers of homes under construction to access mortgage financing and only use the purchase ticket for an apartment in a well.
This measure, focused on the so-called “divisible mortgages”promises to energize the real estate sector by allowing sales tickets to act as collateral to access financing.
The fact is that, in 2024, the used residential sector of the real estate market benefited greatly, according to what he commented. Balayan. However, the one of real estate developments He did not have the same luck, “costs became very expensive and put developers on alert,” he said. “The cost of construction rose 8.5% in December. In dollars, 64% throughout 2024 and reached the highest level in six years,” according to the consulting firm’s measurement. Empiria.
“This type of financing will be a decisive factor in generating greater dynamism in the market, boosting not only the supply of new properties, but also employment and growth throughout the sector’s entire production chain,” noted Wierzba.
Several banks are working on the implementation and preparation to offer these loans, but, for now, there is no clear or defined path on how they will proceed, nor is there information on the possible rate they will have. In that sense, the developer emphasized the importance of the banking sector accompanying the initiative so that credits “become accessible and functional.”
Regarding the developers’ bets, Mohadeb commented that they are targeting “more sophisticated, larger-scale projects, with larger plots of land and larger works.”
“Although the cost of construction continues to rise, we see that in the places we invest, the sale prices are being validated by the market, maintaining the attractiveness of investment in bricks and an important future upside for those who decide to invest,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
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