A study carried out by more than 50 consulting firms and private banksboth local and international, revealed that the dollar parallel will end 2025 below the official exchange rate, due to the peso appreciation process promoted by the Government of Javier Milei. Analysts highlighted that the Argentine economy will experience growth above the Latin American average, at the same time that they adjusted downward the inflation projections for this yeardriven by measures such as fiscal adjustment, the elimination of the PAIS Tax and the slowdown in the rate of depreciation (crawling peg) since February.
Dollar: how much will the exchange rate be in December 2025
According to the consensus of the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts, The official wholesale exchange rate will reach $1,348 in Decemberwhile the parallel will be located at $1,332, which would imply a reduction in the gap between both exchange rates. Both prices will suffer a weakening compared to current levels in real terms, according to the report.
On January 17, the peso was quoted at $1,041.80 per dollar, experiencing a monthly depreciation of 2%. In the parallel market, the dollar reached $1,235, which represented a monthly drop of 5.7%. According to the panelists, both rates are expected to weaken further towards the end of 2025, with the peso closing the year at $1,347.70 per dollar, and at $1,603.60 by 2026.
Regarding monetary policyanalysts noted that the Central Bank reduced its monetary policy rate from 35% to 32% in December, driven by declining inflation and a more restrictive fiscal stance. This accumulated decrease of 101 percentage points since the end of 2023 mThere is a trend towards greater monetary easing in the future, which favors credit and investment. FocusEconomics panelists project that The monetary policy rate could close 2025 at 26.24% and 2026 at 18.31%.
According to Focus Economics, inflation would close 2025 at 31.7%
According to the consensus of the FocusEconomics panelists, Annual inflation for 2025 is forecast at 31.7%a figure higher than the 18% projected by the Government, but significantly lower than the 117.8% in 2024 and 211.4% in 2023, during the administration of Alberto Fernández.
The monthly variation in prices went from 25% in December 2023 to 2.7% in the same month of 2024. The lower inflationary pressures are due to the reduction in the comparison base, the fiscal adjustment implemented by Milei, the elimination of the PAIS Tax and the deceleration of the crawling peg to 1% monthly starting in February. Exchange rate stability will be a key factor for the success of this policy.
From Banco Itaú, they estimated that inflation in 2025 will be 25%, adjusting their expectations downward compared to the 30% previously expected, due to the slowdown in the depreciation of the exchange rate and the cut in the policy rate. monetary. ANDMeanwhile, BBVA adjusted its forecast to 30%, reducing its previous estimate of 35%.
Argentine GDP will be above the Latin American average
Argentina’s economic growth is expected to remain above the Latin American average, with an expansion of 4.4% in 2025, driven by reforms implemented by the government, reduced inflation and an improvement in credit. ANDThe IMF also projects a 5% increase in GDP in 2025 and 2026, after a -2.8% drop in 2024.
Sergio Armella, from Goldman Sachs, highlighted that the economic recovery will continue, with a growth forecast of 3.5% in 2025, after a contraction of -2.6% in 2024, thanks to an increase in real wages, the improvement of credit to the private sector and an increase in both business and consumer confidence.
Source: Ambito
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