Argentina closed 2024 with a significant rebound in its trade surplus, which went from the red mark of almost US$7 billion in 2023 to a positive balance of more than US$17.3 billion, according to data available until November.
This reality was reflected in a strong growth in the reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), the stability of parallel dollars, the reduction of the exchange gap and a significant increase in the value of sovereign bonds.
The agricultural sector was, once again, a determining actorfor the entry of dollars into the country.
According to data from the Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic and the Cereal Exporters Center (CIARA-CEC), the liquidation of agricultural currencies rose 27% year-on-year with a cumulative total that exceeded US$25,090 million, after the historic drought of 2023.
Regarding December, companies in the sector settled the sum of US$1,966 million, which represented an increase of 58% compared to the same month in 2023, but a decrease of 1.6% compared to November.
To consolidate and increase the trade balance in 2025, the continuity of the deregulatory measures of the Javier Milei government, the reduction of taxes and the gradual removal of withholdings on exports will be essential.
In that sense, it is worth noting that there are a series of aspects that could shake the good numbers of the trade surplus and that must be closely monitored.
One of them is the increase in imports, as a result of their lower prices that produced the necessary removal of the COUNTRY Tax, which was implemented starting in December as a key measure to move towards exiting the exchange rate.
Added to this is the downward trend in the prices of agricultural commodities, such as soybeans and meat, which would impact foreign exchange earnings even though the quantities exported could be greater.
In fact, based on estimates of the planted area, it is estimated that the corn, soybean and wheat harvest for the 2024/25 campaign could be US$4.5 billion less than that of 2023/24. What ultimately happens will also depend on changing climatic factors, which are always important for agricultural production.
Therefore, it will be essential that in this scenario the fine tuning is adjusted and the export profile of other areas of the economy, such as energy, is promoted to gradually put agro-dependence aside.
General Manager of Outland Logistics
Source: Ambito
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