If there is something to be specified with respect to Government’s policy is that its priority is not put in tax reduction, as the Minister of Economy repeats tirelessly, Luis Caputo, but in the balance of state accounts. From there, that the main rule for the libertarian administration is that, SI fall for income, a cut of expenses of equal magnitude is made.
In that sense, the Loss of US $ 800 million and the elimination of retentions for regional productions, only It came to add more problems to those before starting exercise 2025.
It is not explained so much because of the will to reduce the tax burdenbut rather in issues of economy and politics. On the one hand, the field entities were claiming a lifeguardS Before the delay of the exchange rate that limates the profitability of one of the most competitive sectors of Argentina. And on the other, It is better to avoid problems in an electoral year with a sector that is ally.
This year the government will not have the income of the Country tax, which represented 1.44% of the internal gross product (GDP), to which the loss of “extra” is added, as produced by moratorium and money laundering, which left Another 0.44% of GDP. That added already implies an equivalent decrease to 1.88% of GDP.
How much is what is lost with the measure announced by Luis Caputo in the Government House?
Analysts propose that government loss with the removal of retentions can be between 0.13% and 0.2% of the product. So that the loss of tax resources of 2025 will reach between the 2.01% and 2.08%. The figure is quite important to All this can be compensated for greater tax collection due to the growth of the activity.
Keep in mind that in 2025 the economy It will recover growth compared to 2024, but its magnitude is still an unknown. While from the Government and some agencies propose an increase of the GDP of 5%, others speak of 3.5%.
What is the cost of the new soy dollar?
He Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf) made an evaluation with respect to the cost of the last ad. Points out that equivalent to 0.13%. That represents 42% of the 2024 fiscal surplus, almost 30% of the operational deficit of public companies, 33% of the real direct investment and 47% of non -automatic transfers to the provinces, among other variables. Luis Caputo will be served from any of them to keep the numbers in order
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Hernán Letcher, from the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA) maintains that “the cost of retention reduction is Little less than 0.2% of GDP ““It is not such a significant volume, but they don’t have it, I don’t think the surplus compensates that, ”he explained.
Letcher considers that the government It will “sustain part of the adjustment in retirees for the freezing of the bonus, What is giving Some adjustment or surplus there and then will have to do something additional. ” “The interesting thing is made a budget where none of these things was contemplated, with what which something has to cut “. The head of the strain considered that a part of the cut can come from the debt exchange of $ 23 billion that the Ministry of Finance summoned this week, because with this they will cut some interest expenses ..
The fiscal gold rule
According to the 2025 budget project, which was not approved, the government You plan to get a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP, which is the equivalent of debt expiration. Then it was going to get to zero. The message to Congress indicates that CAny diversion was going to be compensated with expenses. It is not clear how it will be achieved.
In fact, over the months will be seen If economic recovery is stronger or faster and how it impacts this on tax collection. There you will see where the cuts are going to be made. What is clear is that although it will not be an adjustment of 5% of GDP as in 2024, The magnitude of the chainsaw will be important again in 2025.
Source: Ambito
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