A private report ensures that the dynamics of increasing credit in dollars will depend not only on the demand for credit but also on the evolution shown by deposits in browning. In that framework there would be an impact on reserves.
They assure that The dynamics of increasing credit in dollars In the short term it will depend not only on the Loan demand, but of The evolution shown by deposits in argen. Therefore, consultants warn that if a stagnation occurs, or even, a certain deterioration in foreign currency deposits will have Its impact on credits and therefore on reserves.
To this conclusion comes the last report of Aurum values that explain that They cannot rule out a scenario in which argyn deposits stagnate or even reduce. “In the case of a stagnation of dollar deposits (something that seems to be the most likely according to recent performance) and the financial system assumed a risk such as 2018 (raising the credit ratio in USD /deposits in USD 60%) The potential increase in credit in USD would be US $ 6,400 million, “they explain.
This amount It is small Considering the current account deficit process based on a box base that occurred in the last months of 2024. “Behind this possible less vigorous dynamic than expected forward in credit performance to the private sector would file some of the reasons that have led To the economic team to be available: Low of retention to agriculture, accelerate an agreement with the IMF and possibly, to eliminate the blend sooner rather than later“They expanded.
For aurum values, the objectives of accumulating reservations in a “sustained and forceful” way would be achieved because The decline in retention to agriculture could stimulate more the increase in credit in dollars, The agreement with the IMF could anticipate disbursements providing an important currency mattress and The eventual elimination of Blend provides an accumulation of more genuine and less credit reserves.
Credits, deposits and the change in trend
On December 16, the vice president of the BCRA, Vladimir Werningpublished a sensitivity table that refers to Potential impact that would have on net reserves (for each quarter of 2025) the monthly increase in the granting of loans in dollars from the increase in the stock of deposits due to money laundering.
In this regard, at that time from Aurum they assured that “the contribution since August 2024 of the increase in dollar credit granted by the local financial system to the private sector was very significant for the exchange intervention that derives in the increase in reserves (at that time explained 70% of the intervention, today is more than 90%) and it was important A maximum of US $ 34,600 M. The stock was falling. “
It should be noted that at that time some US $ 2,800 million had fallen, they currently accumulate a deterioration of US $ 3,200 million from that maximum.
“We also said that, while In December, the relations in dollars in deposits at US $ was 30%in the past we had seen maximum of 63% (in May 2018) with a exchange market without restrictions and levels of 37% in 2024 before the laundering began. For this reason at least we expected an increase to the level of that 37% ratio, which implied a potential increase in dollar credit at least, about US $ 2,100 million. That increase has already happened ($ 2,200 million grew from 12/16), but as it also lowered The stock of deposits in dollars The credit relationship to deposits has exceeded 37% and is now 39%“They closed.
Source: Ambito
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