Despite recent movements, BCRA reserves show negative numbers. What will happen to the new possible agreement with the IMF and the Government’s plan to advance the elimination of the stocks.
During the month of January that has just finished we had a lot Next entered a repo (short -term loan) of 5 international banks for an amount of US $ 1,000 along with some purchase of export settlement currencies reaching 32,774 million.
This movement generated a descending slide from the same 3 until Friday, January 31, which reached the order of the US $ 28,307 million from the 29,428 million on Thursday 30, a consequence of having sold about 650 million in a single day . Although Friday’s fall is increased by a payment close to 620 million to settle the IMF share next Monday, February 3 (although the real expiration is February 1). We should add everything and this gives us a drop of US $ 4,467 million.
We must point out that on January 9, capital and interests of the re -structuring bonds of the 2020 external debt were paid for the order of US $ 4,500 million, which came out from the national treasure and therefore did not come out International gross reserves from the BCRA. That is, in the totality we must take into account that during January 2025 the exit of US dollars from the national state (BCRA+national treasury) is US $ 8,967 million.
Today the number of net reserves is negative in the order of US $ 11,000, which is why the early regime for export settlement was placed 15 days after the date of declaration of the same. As a result of this regime destined greatly to the liquidation of exports of the accumulated harvest in the bags, even part of those bought in the last expoagro made (since it was the article that achieved the greatest sales).
We are observing that these grains would not be liquidated or settled consequence that to anticipate this liquidation a higher percentage of discount on financing or directly pay them with their own funds that are mostly used as insurance of the producers themselves in the face of some inconvenience that arises are required.
Reservations: BCRA goes now after Chinese dollars
The previous paragraph is also a consequence of the next agreement with the IMF of which all the advisors know that it is a new agreement because the agreements closed by Luis Caputo in the months of May-August of 2018 are already closed since April 2021 and by Therefore, new requirements such as being:
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New devaluation that would be at least 60% since the difference in accumulated inflation vs. Microdevaluations between 12/13/2023 and February 2025 would be in 110%.
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Exchange rate flotation, dirty or clean can be discussed.
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Accumulation of real reserves.
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According to the memory of the facts of 2018 that who executes the economic plan is another responsible.
This should occur before the final political support of the IMF is granted in its Spring Meeting 2025, together with a probable National Law of Retentions by which the Retentions Regime via Decree/Resolution would cease to exist generating that the modifications would have to Pass yes or yes by Congress as expresses the very National Constitution, whereby many producers who make exports in their own name could remain with 0% withholdings and not be subject to a useless sacrifice to reach an impoverishment that they exceed widely 57% of the departure of convertibility in 2002.
Source: Ambito
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