The government of Donald Trump announced the implementation of Tariffs for Mexico, Canada and China From the first hour of this Tuesday. In that context, the Dollar shot but Argentina did not flinch And he maintained his new table with the scheme of 1% monthly rise administered from the green ticket of the world’s coins, which mostly fell. Now, How can this commercial war impact local foreign trade?
USA imposed tariffs on the products of Mexico (25%), Canada (25%) and China (10%), while the oil and the energy From neighboring countries they also suffered rates of 10%. Although the tycoon appealed on the march with the new rates imposed on the Latin American giant after a dialogue with the president, Claudia Sheinbaumwho promised a “immediate” display of “10,000 soldiers to the border that separates Mexico and the United States”for the moment it is just a post of a month in the commercial war. In that context, the Mexican weight managed to recover part of the loss and operates with a decline of 1.2% and “investors expect the next movements.”
ChinaFor his part, he promised this Sunday reprisals against tariffs taxes by Washington on account of the fentanyl and emphasized that it will take the case before the World Trade Organization (WTO). “Tariffs will undermine future drug control cooperation,” said the Chinese exterior spokeswoman in a statement in which he defended that the Asian giant includes the fentanil and its precursors under regulatory regime since 2019.
Commercial War: How does it impact on Argentina?
He New scenario is challenging on the external frontsince a stronger dollarat the same time that the coins of the main business partners depreciate, as is the case of the Brazilian realwhich generates, in turn, a real weight appreciationand It affects strong competitiveness. In this way, the new commercial war of USA “Forces to deepen structural reforms to compensate”he explains Elisabet Bacigaluporesponsible for macroeconomics of Abeceb.
Not a step back in the new exchange scheme. The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputothrough a post in the social network X, he said that the government will not move from the current fiscal and monetary order despite external fluctuations. “We always contemplate the possibility that there are external shocks, such as the one we are seeing right now”. As of this February 1, the Government launched the decline of the “Crawling Peg” of the 2% to the 1%which in this new international scenario is harmful to competitiveness.
“The fall in commodities prices reduces the supply of currencies and makes the elimination of the exchange rate more complexwhile the Central Bank Continue buying dollars but Net reserves are still negative“He analyzed Bacigalupo. Amid the price drop, the government defined reducing withholdings to the main crops, as well as the elimination for Regional economies with the intention that there is a higher currency income.
“For every US $ 10 less at the price of soybean ton, about US $ 400 million in exports are lost. At the same time, the increase in interest rates at a global level makes external financing increase, making it difficult to return to international markets and affecting the capitalization of Argentine companies. The possible output of emerging assets can also complicate the funding of the current account and extend the negotiation with the IMFwhich presses a more flexible exchange rate against external shocks, “added the expert.
Commercial War: Is there a medium term window for Argentina?
In a context of lower global demand and reconfiguration of supply chains, “An oversupply of products could be generated, impacting the volumes and prices of Argentine exports”highlights the head of macroeconomics of the consultant of Dante Sica. But this new scenario could also open a “window” For Argentina: “Opportunities may arise if the US and China redirect their demand for certain agroindustrial products to the region,” said the expert.
“Argentina could benefit from sectors such as Wines, fruits, soy, corn, wheat and meat“Bacigalupo said. In addition, the Trump threat to upload tariffs to the European Unionwhich could generate incentives to Accelerate the implementation of the UE-MERCOSUR Agreementwhich would favor the Argentine exports.
The first effects of the measure were observed in the Financial marketswith losses of up to 2.7% headed by him Japan Nikkei, and in the acceleration of dollar in the world. Although, from Abeceb, they emphasize that “the background impact will depend on the response of China, Mexico and Canada and how international trade is reconfigured in the coming months. “
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
