From October 2023 until January 2025, the Central Bank (BCRA) could only add US $ 8,760 millions to their reservations, despite having registered a Positive flow of dollars for a total of US $ 27,921 million.
According to estimates of the Megaqm, In a report for investors, in reality the Central Bank It could keep 31% of what arrived. The rest went to pay different commitments in the country. The ability to add reserves of the highest monetary authority can be considered as decline, since of 10 dollars that reach the country, could only keep 3 but, in reality, Without money laundering dollars, that proportion would have dropped to 1 in 10.
Megaqm points out that “they go 14 months of strong intervention of the BCRA in the Mulc to buy dollars, But the impact on reservations has been limited. ” “The public sector was taken for debt payments and for payments to organisms 50% of the total positive flow. Almost the remaining 20% was used to intervene in the market or lost a product of changes in asset value, ”says the report.
Since October 11, 2023 the BCRA registered revenues for US $23,037 million corresponded to purchases in the official YU $ S4.83 million market to lacech deposits.
What did the dollars go
On the other hand, the monetary entity records Negative flows of dollars for a total of US $ 19,160 million, composed of US $ 13,881 million for the public sector for the payment of debt with organisms and sales to Treasury. By intervention, valuation and others, US $ 5,280 million were lost.
The result is an increase in reserves of US $ 8,761 million, But you have to keep in mind that something More than 55% of the result is explained by the lace of the special bleaching accounts.
Megaqm argues that the data “confirm the relevance ‘exchange’ that the Treasury manages to roll its maturities in foreign currency ”this year.
Keep in mind that eN 2025 There are maturities with international organizations for a total of US $ 6,882 million that put pressure on the market. That is why the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, has to close this year a new agreement with the IMF, which will open the doors with the rest.
Deposits fall into dollars
The other problem that presents The exchange market is that dollar deposits are decreasing. To January the total deposits, according to the report, is US $ 34,318 million of which 33%were provided.
As indicated by the stock company, “in the dollar segment, loans continue to grow, but The drop in deposits begins to generate concern. ”
He points out that “deposited dollars are being applied to corporate debt and consumption payments abroad.” In that sense, Megaqm argues that “little by little It has begun to increase the remuneration of these balances to encourage the permanence of deposits. ”
Source: Ambito
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