He country risk He operated upwards in recent months and, although he drilled the 100 basic points on Wednesday according to the Uruguay Risk Index (Iubevsa) that elaborates the Electronic Stock Exchange of Uruguay, He closed the week down and remained at 88 points, remaining at low levels and consolidating the country as the best in the region in the matter.
The electoral year and the possible approval of the plebiscite on the Social Security Reform They generated pressure on the indicator for 2024. To this is added at the start of 2025 some tensions in the transition, with the elected government putting the focus on the fiscal situation left by the current administration.
However, the recent launch of a new Global Bonus in dollars, whereby the government placed $ 1.5 billion and achieved the Spred Lower in history for this type of issuance, it seems to show that the market continues to bet on the confidence that the country transmits to it, which supports its best credit rating in history.
Country risk levels “are historically low”
The economist and consulting assistant of CPA Ferrere, Camila Boada, expressed in statements to Scope that the indicator “remains at historically low levels” and recalled that Uruguay It is the country of the region with the least sovereign spred, “even below Chili, that has a better sovereign rating. ”
Boada considered that 2024’s “slight increase” was linked “mainly to the risk of approval of the plebiscite of the Pit-Cnt to reform social security ”, although he observed that in the 2019-2024 five-year period, the country risk, measured through the Ubi (Uruguay Bond Index, from AFAP Republic) More than 50 basic points fell and has remained below 100 since last August ”(today in 81).
For the referent of CPA Ferrere, the improvement is linked “in large part” to the creation of the new institutional framework for the tax policy of the outgoing government and the social security reform of 2023. “Together they facilitated the improvement of the credit rating by risk ratingers, ”he reviewed.
An increase possibly linked to the transition
In turn, the economist and researcher at the Center for Development Studies (CED), Deborah Eilender, He pointed out that, beyond indicators such as the UBI or Irubevsa, the Embi (Emerging Market Bond Index) that elaborates JP Morgan, It also increased by about 7% so far this year and around 9% from the elections, located today at 0.95.
“This is going to the contrary of what has happened in the rest of Latin America, where he has been decreasing, ”Eilender observed in dialogue with this medium and admitted that” the result of the elections”.
The analyst highlighted the “important civic tradition” that leads to “the country not to be refused every five years, but we tend to continue many of the policies and continue with the Game rules. ” However, he pointed out that, outside the ads, “a new government can generate some uncertainty about what the economic team will be, what decisions will be made and what will be the main focus.”
“Beyond statements by the ministers, who give us an idea of where they will be aimed, until they effectively assume and take the first measures, we cannot be totally sure where it will be directed. That has enough to do with this rise, ”he said.
The global bonus milestone supports the road
Boada highlighted the issuance of the new global bonus in dollars with expiration in 2037, which allowed the government to place $ 1.5 billion. “The demand exceeded broadly Global new in dollars, ”he valued.
For the specialist of CPA Ferrere, “The issuance in a transition context, as well as the lowest financing cost of the debt, They account for the confidence of the markets in the ability to repay by Uruguayan state ” And he stressed that this happens “regardless of who governs.”
When referring to the bid USA, that did not happen for internal changes here, but there for the assumption of Donald Trump ”.
What can happen in the future?
In the face of the next few weeks, Eilender said that “it is difficult to know if it is a more systemic risk that can last over time or is simply associated with electoral change.” Therefore, he considered it necessary to “closely monitor the issue to see how it develops.”
Meanwhile, Boada ignited an alarm light by pointing out that the adjustment made by the administration headed by Luis Lacalle Pou “It was less than expected and insufficient to stabilize the public debt, leaving less fiscal space for incoming administration. ”
“Within this framework, possible expansive tax reforms and the eventual re-reformation of the social security of the new government could press the upward country risk,” he anticipated what some future complications can be.
Source: Ambito
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