Blackrock maintains the “appetite for risk” in a global volatility scenario

With the arrival of 2025, Blackrock prepares for a year full of uncertainties and economic fluctuationsmarked by a growing volatility that could continue to define global markets.

According to your analysisvolatility is a constant since the beginning of the year, promoted by a series of factors that include the change in fiscal policies of the United States, ups and downs in long -term yields and commercial tensions involving key powers such as China.

The Blackrock analysis team indicates that long -term yields began to shoot due to the growing tax concernsand then experience a significant fall as a consequence of fears on global economic growth. The United States Treasury promise to reduce these yields has been seen as an attempt to mitigate the effects of inflation, although it has failed to stop market volatility.

The catalysts you see Blackrock

One of the main catalysts of this uncertainty has been the advancement of artificial intelligence, particularly with the progress reported by the Chinese Startup Depseek. In addition, tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese products remain a central theme of discussion in markets, generating additional uncertainty.

Blackrock, in this regard, emphasizes that tariffs will be a key tool in American economic policy in the near future. According to the firm’s analysts, 10% could become a base rate to generate incomewhile the tariffs of the 25% would be used more as a negotiation tool.

According to the Blackrock analysis, if general tariff 1930s, what It could generate significant repercussions for the global economy. The impact of these tariffs will depend on several factors, such as their level, the scope of their implementation, their duration and reprisals of the affected countries.

As for the prospects of the US market, Blackrock is optimistic, highlighting the resilience of US actions in 2025despite the escalation of commercial tensions. The firm is confident that, as long as economic growth is maintained at adequate levels and inflation is controlled, the sharing market will continue to demonstrate strength.

In particular, the growth of profits in the fourth quarter has exceeded expectations, with the profits of the S&P 500 (excluding the great technological, the “7 magnificent”) growing around 5% compared to last year.

Facing the future, Blackrock maintains its position of raising US actionsAlthough it warns that any change in the dynamics of corporate gains could be an important trigger to reassess this strategy. On the other hand, the firm is still cautious with the United States Treasury Bonds, predicting that, despite government efforts to reduce yields, long -term bonds will continue to see an increase in their yields due to high deficits fiscal and persistent inflation.

In emerging markets, Blackrock adopts a more conservative position. The firm emphasizes that countries such as Mexicowhich have greater exposure to the effects of tariffs, could face greater risks in their local economies, which would negatively affect their debt in local currency. Consequently, Blackrock opts for a subponderation strategy in the debt of emerging markets, where the uncertainty of commercial policies could generate more volatility, especially in currency markets.

In summary, despite the uncertainties surrounding global commercial and fiscal policies, Blackrock maintains its investment approach focused on US actions, backed by solid growth and opportunities that artificial intelligence represents for the future. However, the firm remains cautious in terms of long -term bonds and emerging markets, where commercial tensions could generate more uncertainty in the short term.