Boncap-Duals (TTM26, TTJ26, TTS26, and TTD26) with per year 42% yield, double the inflation rate and triple the devaluation rate. The government with fiscal surplus ensures large profits in dollars.
In Argentina we are in the prelude to the agreement with the IMF, which would arrive between March and April, although we must not rule out some postponements. January inflation was 2.2% monthly, the lowest since July 2020 in the middle of the pandemic. Argentina is paying debt in dollars, and renewing debt in pesos, in the last tender a bonus adjusted per dollar Linked is offered, and although many analysts predict a devaluation, it seems that silver does not put anyone. In the markets, This is by silver; If a devaluation is predicted and nobody buys dollar linked bonds, it is because nothing will happen.
The months of January and February are contractive, however, this economy lacks pesos. The passive rate in pesos is climbing, the 90 -day LECAP yields 31% annual, a dual boncap with expiration at March 16 of the year 2026 yields 42% per year. They are extremely attractive rates, if we expect an inflation rate at one year around 20% to 23% per year, a devaluation rate of the wholesale dollar that is projected at 12.7%, and the dollar ticket, if there is convergence with The wholesale dollar will show an improvement of less than 5.0% per year.
The Government Plan shows a very important monthly fiscal surplus, leaves a few pesos in the economy, the rate in pesos comfortably exceeds the inflation rate and devaluation. With this scenario it is very difficult for us to see a rise in alternative dollars in the markets.
The active rate in pesos for companies is very high, we have effective rates of 50% and up to 60% per year, this implies positive real rates that go between 25% and 33% annually, which does not measure the risks of financing in financing in financing Weights can have an unpleasant surprise in the flow of funds, and fall into serious financial problems. Before taking financing in pesos, It would be better to break the pig and capitalize the company.
We are in a scenario where the weights are scarce and the abundant dollars, so the rate in pesos is so high, and a 180 -day financing is around 6% per year.
The Central Republic Argentina should work so that all Argentines have access to credit in dollars. At present, only those in the export chain are accessed to this benefit, but it is unfair, we can cancel payments with pesos and dollars, we can save on pesos and dollars, however, only those that are in the export chain. This harms the competitiveness of companies working in the domestic market. You can take a credit in dollars, and make coverage in the dollar future market, where at one year the effective rate is in another of 27% per year, the sum of the dollar rate and the coverage rate is lower than the credit rate in pesos.
The rate rise in $ between investments.
The rate in pesos is an opportunity cost for business, when the rate raises all financial assets are ended up arbitrating down. For example, a bonus like the AL30 has a dollar return rate of dollars, if we take it to pesos with the idea that the MEP dollar rises in the year 5.0%, the rate of return of this Bonus in pesos would be 18.7%, a rate lower than the rate of a boncap that expires within 2026 that yields 42% per year.
A bonus like the TX26 that expires in the year 2026 yields inflation plus an annual rate of 7.0%. If we estimate 23% inflation and add a 7.0% annual rate, this would give us a rate in weights of 31.6% per year, it is also located at much lower levels than the Boncap.
Companies that are traded in the stock market must discount funds of funds to higher rates in the future, therefore, the profit prospects will decrease with the rate rise in pesos. On the other hand, those who wish to acquire shares with money will have a higher financing rate. The bond rate today is located in 27.5% per year, it is a high rate if we take into account that inflation could be in 23% annually or less. However, the bond rate is very low with respect to the bank financing rate, which is very interesting point to take into account in companies.
Within the capital market, if I am a holder of bond in dollars, you can take sure and finance in dollars, even if my business is not in the export chain, this is a very interesting fact, the dollar rate is between the 2 , 0% and 3.0% annual, being a very competitive rate for companies. To access this dollar rate, you have to have bonds nominated in dollars, such as the family of the bonds al, GD or Bopreal.
Conclusions
. – We keep looking at the outside market, waiting for a floor for contributions. Those who sold and today see quotes below their sale price, could repurchase, but very slowly.
. – The summer bonus is the dual boncap that yield 42.0% (such as TTM26 or TTD26) and double the inflation rate, triple the devaluation rate, and pay 8 times more than the dollar’s rise rate ticket.
. – Investments in pesos are preferred, in a capital market that imports a lot of volatility from the exterior, and that comes from having a large rise during the year 2024. For now, staying in pesos, making the iron in bonds and shares.
Source: Ambito
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