The first two months of 2025 were almost for oblivion in the markets. With a marked volatility that was deepened and led to the main rates to retreat considerably, both internationally and in the premises, which was dragged by the first.
Although, in general, the economic data has been good (bulky fiscal and financial surplus, January inflation by 2.2%, continuous purchases in the Mulc by the Central Bank, stable ICG above 50%), the local market could not resist the shaking of the Trump effect. To this, you have to add the local political noises and the $ Libra scandal.
In the midst of this turbulence, A new beam of light emerged. In the inaugural speech of the ordinary sessions of the Congress, President Javier Milei announced that he would soon be sending a New agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be able to advance in the departure of capital control.
He clarified that the treasure would use these funds to pay BCRA its debt, which would mean an improvement in net reserves. This prompted the sovereign bonds, as it indicates towards a possible exchange standardization, but in the absence of definitions (such as the amount to be received) the impact was contained.
It should also be noted that, given the representativeness of LL in Congress, his answer is uncertain. However, the government has already demonstrated political doll to pass the initiatives in which you have interest.
How to build an investment portfolio?
The first thing to define is our investor profile, the portfolio for a conservative investor is very different than for an aggressive one.
In the first case, an attractive portfolio would be positioned almost entirely in fixed income instruments with the following distribution: 50% in corporate bonds, 30% in provincial bonds, 15% in sovereign bonds in dollars and the remaining 5% in sovereign bonds in pesos.
While for a more aggressive portfolio this distribution changes considerably, positioning 40% in variable income instruments (shares and yields), 25% in provincial bonds, 20% in sovereign bonds in pesos and 15% in sovereign bonds in dollars.
What are the best options and bonds to invest
Within each of these classifications, individual instruments are greater projection and more convenient in the risk-return relationship are:
Corporate Bonds (ONS)
Within what are negotiable obligations, we can find companies with very good credit profile and performance more than acceptable.
Such is the case of YPF ($ YM34O)that yields 8% annual in dollars and expires in January 2034, TELECOM ($ TLCMO) that today yields 8.4% and expires July 2031 or MSU Energy ($ Rucdo) yielding 10% and with an expiration in 2030.
Sovereign bonds in dollars
February was a complicated month for Argentine fixed income. The country risk climbed about 160 basic points accumulating an increase of 225 basic points from the minimum of the last six years of January 9. Thus, the low accumulation debt of up to 6.5% in the month. However, with this new scenario, new opportunities are also opened, especially in the long part of the curve, as is the case of the $ GD35 that today is yielding 12%.
Provincial bonds
In what is the provincial debt, we can also find very attractive yields with a moderate risk-return relationship, especially in the case of Mendoza or Neuquén bonds, both yielding over 9% per year. However, if we want to assume the bonus of the province of Buenos Aires with expiration at 2037, it is also very attractive, today more than 15% per year in dollars.
Sovereign bonds in pesos
Despite the abrupt rise of financial dollars in February (+3.7% CCL), the pesos strategy presented a performance similar to that of sovereign debt in dollars and, in a context of stabilization and a path of inflation deceleration, the fixed rate (Lecaps such as $ 30y5 or $ S18J5) and dual bonds such as $ TTM26 could represent a good refuge.
Variable rent: In February, Merval fell 17.7% in dollars. Faced with such a fall, interesting entry opportunities open. Especially in banks ($ ggal, $ bma, $ bbar) and energy ($ ypfd, $ pamp).
Beyond these mentions, always the fundamental recommendation is to consult with a financial advisor to see the specific case of each and put together a portfolio according to their profile, its objectives and needs.
PPI Commercial Development Manager.
Source: Ambito
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