When a negotiation falls, the IMF never informs the state of “falling negotiations” since being with one of its members also runs the risk of falling the same body.
During this week we had a small drill drill, dyed with real denial audios for the purpose of generating a lot sanctioned in 2021 consequence that in 2018 the Government of Mauricio Macri with negotiators such as Luis Caputo and Federico Sturzenegger disregarded/ignored the National Constitution.
In the case of this moment, Law 27,612 establishes that the letter of intention made and published by the IMF technical team must be sent, which the Government either sent it and therefore only sent the order to the congress of the signing of a blank check to negotiate and sign any agreement. Or as many of us explain it, he asked the people’s representatives to authorize it to sign a mortgage in the future without saying how the requirements and/or the conditions after the firm are paid.
Therefore, what was done from the presidency is a totally irresponsible act and/or that can be susceptible to the nation in serious problems in the future.
Those of us who know the issue of external debt in all its forms of negotiation- multilateral organisms and/or private bonds- we saw and said in a timely manner that there was no expression even agreed in word with the IMF so far.
Now we see with all the declarations expressed on Friday that this is the only reality, since when communicating with fund officials they inform us that there are no news beyond what has been said 15 days ago by the spokeswoman for it (“… there are very productive talks …”) n even negotiations initiated.
Against the news of the advancement analysis of the national legislative elections from October to July to be able very high recession/self -generated economic depression and have submitted the population to a useless sacrifice for almost 15 months.
What the IMF requests only to sit down to negotiate in our case is: devaluation between 60 and 110%, liberation of the stocks, exchange unification. Flotation of the exchange and exit rate of the minister taking into account what happened in 2018. That could result in a monetary base (savings boxes in pesos+current accounts in pesos+pesos that we have in our physical/virtual wallets and wallets today) today at $ 100 bm vs Bruta international reserves of the BCRA U $ S 26,636 mm and in frank decrease until August could be close to US $ 20 mm or less the technical value of the exchange rate gives you a number of $ 5,000 per each US dollar. Although this technical value is only a reference and is generally not fulfilled at the time of liberation of the stocks but after 20 to 30 financial wheels but there is no roof for that situation.
As a historical fact we can show that we would find ourselves before a possible starting of the negotiation number 24 of our beloved Argentina with the IMF. In 95% of these negotiations, agreements were closed and only one of them fulfilled quarterly revisions with the signed. That was the last from his signature in 2022 to December 10, 2023.
The only negotiation that did not come to fruition was that of October-Principles of December 2001 that was only for US $ 1.5 billion to cover quota to themselves, being the result of this first the internal placement of the corralito to current accounts and savings boxes although subsequently extended to the corral to the fixed deadlines in pesos and dollars against bonds granted by the national state. It should be noted that when a negotiation falls, the IMF never informs the state of “falling negotiations” since being with one of its members also run the risk of falling the same organism.
Economic and Tax Analyst
Source: Ambito
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