In the Argentine financial horizon, storm clouds accumulate with a disturbing familiarity. The echoes of 2018 resonate in each corner: the desperate search for help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)the run to the dollar disarming positions in pesos, and the staging of figures such as Luis Caputo and Federico Sturzenegger, whose names were indelibly associated with past crises. The story seems committed to repeat itself, and with it, the latent threat on the savings and well -being of each Argentine citizen.
End the IMF, was the goal of Nestor Kirchner, after restructuring private debt. That strategy was to carry out a conditional economic policy. As a consequence of that decision, the country maintained a growth sustained for several years at 8% and 9% annual rates, thus strongly reducing the debt/GDP ratio.
Actually, the first IMF disbursement for 15,000 million dollars was evaporating for sale for treasure and flightwhich validated the profits in Lebacs (letters from the Central Bank). In addition, with the next disbursements the salvage of banks and capitals swallow that greedily operated in Argentina at profit rates in unprecedented dollars. Above the BCRA added a “shocking” interest rate in dollars, to ensure that sinking the dollar at $ 28 or less, financial investors continue to go from the country with unsurpassed profits.
Consumer credit financing was made to 80% per year, the expression in current account for SMEs reached more than 126% per year, the absence of unauthorized current account, more than 161% per year (expressed in CTF – Total Financial Cost).
At that height, the middle class place was not very clear, although it continued to support the government, significantly. It is that there is a sector that prefers to lose quality of life, if “the other” loses more and; If guarantees of order and protection are assuredas to transnational companies, extractivists and oligopolies that in addition to this maintain a high rate of capital accumulation.
There was not a relieved position of the balance of payments, neither investments, growth, credibility, nor predictability horizon were attracted. In addition to everything the credit was fading.
Like now, there was no medium and long -term stabilization plan because consistency had not been restored. According to INDEC, the June 2018 inflation had triggered a little less than 4%, the highest level in 2 years (Core inflation jumped over 4%, and wholesale prices increased between 6%and 7%). In the last 2 months the BCRA had lost about $ 12,000 million in reservations and the currency escape continued.
The next step faced two fundamental challenges, closely related. The maintenance of the “order” or, guarantee of order, could reach “via coercion” of the Minister of Security Patricia Bullrich, to try to suppress the threat of a huge popular overflow. But being successful in it meant altering social peace, an indispensable requirement to recover trust.
To achieve investment and financing objectives, the Government had to seem able to guarantee social peace and the normalization of the economy, but did not convince international or local investors. It even seemed that the media brotherhood that gave support to the macrista government, began to detach. I was not surprised after the IMF managing director came in person to visit Argentina.
The IMF was supporting the government, but to achieve the “normalization” of the economy, it would be necessary to reduce fluctuations and reverse the negative trend around which the hesitates occurred. The “country financial management” should reverse negative expectationsending with the rapacity of the LEBACS and their furious conversion in debt in dollars via bills of bills and emission of short -term debt. In general, it was a previous requirement to establish the basis of an economy with normal growth patterns, beginning to convert the productive structure, before the bankruptcies became intense.
How would Caputo achieve after Sturzenegger’s resignation “normalize the storm”, as Macri described it?
The “normality” is not that the leaders of international technocracy are visiting a “friendly” country, but in making capital accumulation be carried out and guaranteed in favor of transnational companies, under conditions that ensure a high high accumulation rate.
Although the restitution of the transnational and oligopolic supremacy continued, after the reconnection that was achieved through the bust of the vulture funds and the lifting of the restrictions on the movement of capital and the indecorous financial prey that from any available tribune we had been warning, the worst thing was that we had not yet seen anything. In June 2018 everything indicated that we were going to a trance of instability of magnitude. Our prognosis was that the longer, the greater the disassembly that would feedback the divestment, inflation and the future problem to get the dollars (Tigani, Eugenio Pablo, Eugenio Pablo would feedback, Eugenio Pablo, “2001, IMF, Technocracy and Crisis”, DUNKEN, 2018)
The more the peak of a new crisis will be postponed, the greater the degree of predation that the economy would suffer, under the role that financial speculation assumed. In turn, almost all citizens with monthly savings or surpluses were launched, as a defense against the increasingly unpredictable risks of an erratic and inflationary economy. Almost everyone who could speculating, although the part of the lion had already taken the “capitalism of friends”, investment funds, large corporations and financial entities.
In this way, the longer the crisis that preceded the collapse, the more conclusive and obvious would be the financial operations, including “certain exchange routines.” Luis Caputo was sitting on the Potrona del Bcra. Although its specifications never pass the approval of the Senate would soon be late, the prey continued at full speed.
The shadow of the past looms over us, projecting a future that, if not acting with determination and wisdom, could simply be an expanded reflection of our worst economic nightmares. The signs are in sight, the signals are clear and the history 2018 offers us a lesson that we cannot afford to ignore. It is imperative for each Argentine to become aware, report and act in defense of their heritage and the future. The clock progresses inexorably, and the question that remains in the air is: will we allow the story to be repeated, or will we take the reins of our economic destiny? The answer lies in our hands, and the moment of acting is now.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito

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