The 2022 agreement, signed by Guzmán on January 28 of that year and renegotiated in the current number 23, does not seem to have an acceptable relationship with stability, but unleashed a crisis that exposes the fissures of a bet that swore to break the historical cycle. Reservations to the limit, a stagnant economy that punishes income and an external front in ruins, according to the Argentine Grande Institute (IAG). How an antiestatist model depends so much on the IMF? And why does the background doubt?
The IMF as a support and threat
Milei’s model does not survive without the IMF, but its viability wobbles. BCRA reserves fell this week Au $ S25.775 million after daily sales of US $ 192 million last Fridaya very “low” level. On March 21 they were at US $ 26,626 million, with US $ 1,000 million spent on days to stop the parallel dollar. From December 2023, the Central burned US $ 26,567 million until February 2025, USD 487 million only that month, in a desperate attempt to avoid a run that already appears.
The IMF is the only way out. Milei announced US $20,000 million from agreement number 23, But the background hesitates. With a 20% MEP gap (dollar to USD 1,306) and a 1% crawling of 1% that Caputo questions, Demand devalue or unify the exchange rate. Milei says no, trapped: he needs the IMF, but not his rules. Why would the fund release funds if daily drainage persists? Geopolitics? It does not reach. The fiscal adjustment, its flag, destroyed the construction (-52% since November 2023 after an 80% cut in public works) and the industry (-9.3% in 2024), leaving the country without its own currencies. Without growth, the dependence of the IMF is aggravated, but the rigidity of Milei moves it away from any viable solution.
An economy in red and an IMF in doubt
February 2025 closed with a deficit of US $ 1,231 million in current account of the BCRA exchange balance (U $ S593 million to the IMF in interest, US $ 169 million for services, for example), after nine negative months. The USD 974 million financial surplus failed. Worse: US $ 1,922 million of foreign investment fled between December and February, a blow for a model that presumes attract capital. Far from being a magnet, Argentina ahuyenta investors, intensifying its need for the IMF.
The background asks to unify the exchange rate and cut controls. Milei refuses, defending a crawling pe that neither Caputo Aval. Without funds, the collapse stalks; With them, he must devalue, breaking his speech. The MEP gap, the country risk in 788 and upward inflation reflect an economy on the edge. The IAG alert: without a “resolved exchange panorama”, The IMF can retain everything, forcing a devaluation that Milei avoids at all costs. Nine months of negative current account show a model without oxygen, sustained barely because of whitish, already exhausted.
The social cost and the unfeasibility of the model
The social adjustment. Real wages fell 10.6% in January 2025 about the average of 2023, losing 1,904,403 pesos per worker since Milei assumed, according to the IAG. The consumption sinks (-10.5%in supermarkets), the GDP dropped 1.7%in 2024, with construction (-24%), industry (-6.7%) and commerce (-7.3%) in bite. 118,019 formal jobs were lost, 64,400 under construction, and domestic work fell 20%. The pension moratorium, cut on March 23, left thousands without dignified retirement, one more sacrifice in the name of the adjustment.
This cost does not convince the IMF or stabilize anything. The flight of US $ 1,922 million in foreign investment contradicts libertarian promises. Without the bottom, the dollar explodes; With him, Milei must give in. The adjustment does not generate confidence: the gap persists, the country risk does not fall and the inflation stalks. The model, a castle of cards, punishes the majorities while the IMP doubt, caught in its own unsustainable logic.
Source: Ambito
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