That prices and dollar can stabilize if there is no fiscal deficit is a debatible idea, but it is what operators believe. Given this, it is appropriate to know what the true Argentine deficit is to understand if we are effectively before an economic plan or, failing that, before a whim of the government.
In Argentina We have learned since childhood than prices and the dollar They can stay stable as long as there is no Fiscal deficit. Such an idea is debatable, but the truth is that it is what operators believe. And as they believe, they do not see Ben Trovato as the grandparents would say. Therefore it is atinert to ask: What is the true Argentine fiscal deficit?
Well, suppose there is now a cash balance of the Treasure, that is an operational deficit equal to zero. We must walk out there, since the treasure is not finance BCRA Let’s calculate the True state financial deficit.
Let’s take the Debt in Treasury pesos. Only pesos. Let’s be benevolent and calculate that it is about 200 billion pesos, although it is something else. Let’s take an average remuneration rate of 2.7% monthly that pay all the letters and bonds of the Treasure, including those placed to “Zero coupon” and the capitalizable. Well, the monthly interest to be paid are 5.4 billion pesos per month. That is the financial deficit for debt in treasure pesos.
At this point there is ever missing who says that you only have to take the “real” part of the interest rate and not all, which would make the deficit even zero. Pamplinas, the government’s goal and price stability and dollar is stillness, not the indexation. That is, nominal prices and Nominal dollar stable. Therefore, it is necessary to take everything – yes, all – the interest rate in order to calculate the relevant deficit. Otherwise we would be comparing pears with apples. Sigano then: at a dollar of 1300, those interest equals 4,154 million dollars per month. In the year they are then … USD 49.8 billion. Yes, 50,000 million dollars annually of financial deficit only for the interests of the bonds in pesos. That is the financial deficit in pesos: the equivalent of 50,000 million dollars annually. Calculating a GDP of 600,000 million dollars to a dollar of 1300, today there is a financial deficit of 8.3% of GDP. Among the highest in history. That is the raw truth.
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY MECON
Mariano Fuchila
Now, there is still the interest of the debt in dollars, which is around the 250,000 million of dollars Let’s be permissive and benevolent and suppose an average interest rate of only 4% per year. Annual interest to pay for public debt external are then USD 10,000 million annual. This means 1.7% of GDP. By adding 8.3% of financial deficit in pesos plus 1.7% of financial deficit in dollars, we find that the real financial deficit today is …. voilå, the bicoca of 10% of GDP.
Yes, 10% of the real financial deficit GDP. That is the real financial deficit. The arguments of the type that the deficit is refinancial of little and nothing matters. The pressure on the dollar is not a matter of financing chance or not. We can think that it would not be difficult to renew the bonds and letters in pesos still in complicated circumstances. And surely it will be. But this does not prevent part of the investors in bonds and letters from selling their bonds and buying dollars, pressing this at the rise. Another investor can buy those bonds and even renew them at his expiration, but the pressure on the dollar does not matter despite the fact that the total bonds and letters remain unaltered. It is not a renewal problem.
Nor is it an excuse that a very minority part of all Bonds and letters are in the hands of the ANSES, If we take into account that the funds of the ANSES They are ultimately of retirees, and not of the treasure. We have reached a point where we can now understand the pressure on the price of the dollar and agitated markets. How Serrat sings well: “The truth is never sad, what it does not have is remedy.”
And Colorín, Colorado, this story is over. We do not know if our rulers will end up being happy and eating partridges or not. But if we can arrive at a gold conclusion for the future. Moral: In Argentina, the State being a formidable debtor, never of the hate in an economic stabilization plan whose interest rate is greater than 1% monthly After… .10 minutes started the plan. Because it is not in the presence of an economic plan, but an economic whim.
Source: Ambito
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