Recent economic history has given us a brutal lesson: ignoring warnings can be catastrophic. Just two months ago, from the pages of scope, we warn about the imminence of a “Black Swan” that could unleash chaos in global markets and plunge Argentina into an unprecedented crisis. It was not a random comment or unfounded speculation. It was an analysis based on facts, clear tendencies and in an unavoidable reality: the extreme vulnerability of our economy.
But political and economic power opted for pride instead of prudence. Today, the storm has arrived. And the world catastrophe is disturbing.
The collapse announced. The prophecy fulfilled
Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to increase tariffs to all countries of the world unleashed panic in international financial markets. Wall Street suffered its worst fall in months, with collapses of up to 6%. In this context, Argentine actions in New York sank up to 11%, showing the absolute structural weakness of our financial market. At the same time, the country risk shot up to 872 basic points, a level that marks the final sentence: Argentina is completely out of the radar of global investors.
But this is not all. As we anticipate, the loss of world confidence directly hit the international gross reserves of the BCRA, which collapsed at 124 million dollars more, located in just US $25,312 million. This bleeding further compromises exchange stability and leaves the country without maneuvering margin at a critical moment. And as if that were not enough, the fall in the prices of soy and oil – two of the hopeful pillars of our exports – reinforces financial suffocation, further limiting the entry of dollars.
What we said and what happened
From the triumph of Donald Trump, we have been pointing out from this column that, the result in the elections was not good news for Argentina. (See article of November 7, 2024: https://www.ambito.com/opinions/donald-trump-al-poder-renovacion-opaños-o-nuevos-riesgos-la-argentina-n6079351 We warn about possible pressures so that we leave China. (See GPS program issued in November 2024). of December 11, 2024, https://www.ambito.com/opinions/argentina-al-limite-pue-javier Isaiah?
But already in the article of February 2, 2025, we have been clear and precise (Title: “Black Swan. Last call”) (See at: https://www.ambito.com/opinions/cisne-negro-ultima-ultima-llamada-n6109383) by pointing out the factors that made Argentina an extremely vulnerable country before a global disruptive event. It was not a pessimistic forecast, but a diagnosis based on hard data. And today, each of those points has become a reality:
- We warn that Argentina was dangerously exposed to an external shock.
- We point out that in that case the country risk would scale to alarming levels.
- We anticipate that a global crisis would affect emerging markets more crudely and that Argentina would be the most beaten.
- We explain that it could generate a drop in the prices of soybeans and oil that would shake the Argentine commercial balance hard.
- We warn that international reserves were at critical levels and that an exogenous shock could accelerate its fall indefinitely.
Everything we warn has materialized with chilling precision.
A cornered and unanswered government
While the country bleeds financially, the Government has opted for improvisation stating a dreadful bewilderment. Without a clear plan, without strategy and without effective tools to face the crisis, the president and his Minister of Economy have left Washington in a desperate attempt to obtain a lifeguard from the IMF. The scene is pathetic: Argentina, once again, in a position of begging, begging Trump for an aid that, if it arrives, will come with draconian conditions.
This desperate trip is the final test of what we notice: Argentina lacks financial autonomy and depends exclusively on the will of international organizations and foreign powers to sustain its economy. In this context, any solution that comes from the IMF will imply more severe adjustments, greater pressure on public spending and a deterioration in the living conditions of the population.
The genealogy of the crisis proved us right, when will we learn from history?
The panorama is bleak because the alert signs were there and were dismissed. It was preferred to believe in an economic model based on financial speculation and indebtednessignoring the need to strengthen the real economy and productive capacity of the country.
We have been pointing it with absolute clarity: A “black swan” can unleash chaos in global markets and Argentina has no tools to face it. Today, reality gives us a slap with an inevitable forcefulness.
The consequences of inaction and superb are in sight. Meanwhile, the Argentine managers of this debacle run to ask for help from the same actors who unleashed the crisis, because at the time, they decided to ignore the exhortations.
The question is no longer if there will be a deep crisis. The crisis is here. The real question is: Who will pay the cost of this negligence? How long will they spend until those responsible accept that they should listen? And most importantly: will Argentina be condemned to repeat the same errors over and over again?
The next time someone intuits about the risk of “black swan”, it will be better to pay attention. Because the story is not repeated, but rhyme. And this rhyme is costing us too much.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito
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