This week we continue with the exchange rate and this shows through the Low of Bruta Bcra international reserves. The problem is that since Friday, March 28, that exchange rate begins to mutate in a bank with the dollars out of the savings banks of banks.
These, to their greater extent, come from safety boxes, according to the statements of Santiago Bausili From about 20 days ago: “We are using people’s dollars”. The banking client knows that this means that the central is left without its own reservations to use the lace of the deposits in a fixed period in that currency as available in savings boxes, which in a very short period of time will have to return them. Therefore, the insistence and despair in achieving the credit that increases our country’s debt with the IMF.
The alternatives to a non -loan are catastrophic such as:
Given these alternatives and the possibility is increasingly expressed that they do not deliver a loan, since President Trump’s representative for Latin America, Maurice Claver Carone, said: “USA will not interfere with Argentina’s decision in search of consensus in Board, but Nor will it support if Argentina does not cut the financing line that it has with China”
That means that Argentina must close the coin swap with China, For what the president must go to Beijing soon in the coming 45 or 60 days. That swap is of the equivalent au $ s18,000 million within the or$ 25,000 million of current gross reserves. Therefore, you would be in the order of US $ 5 ou $ 7 billion of reserves being fully exposed to a exchange rate that makes our country take indigence.
The problems of our country are ideological at this time since They took us out of BRICS when it had a new foreign trade window to generate new reserves and new exports. Result of the US situation: its president established an additional import law by placing us at the same level as the rest of South America- to the exception of Venezuela- with 10%.
Given this situation China, Japan and South Korea constituted a new axis in Asia with much more PBI added and higher level in the technological revolution in which we are immersed at the moment; Or else we see that Russia did not place this new import right.
This affects us as follows: The level of US $ 6,500 million Argentine exports in 2024 with much less exported items than in 2023 consequence of inflation in dollars, that aroused at the local level due to the incidence of the bimonary economy implanted horribly in the laws of the ’90s generates that the level of exports falls, with an over -alienation (overectockeo) of products with subsequent suspension of personnel and finally reaching the increase in unemployment and lower levels of internal consumption and international reserves.
Source: Ambito
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