While most entertain with surveys, political chicanas and debates that change like the wind, In the real markets the true opportunity (or the true trap) is being cooking: the Argentine carry trace.
Today, betting on the weights yields more than ever, but it is also playing in the cornice. Why do we talk about “alarms” on September 15 and 30? What can happen if the dollar gets run or, on the contrary, is still ironed? Here, the map to understand the game before it starts.
The Carry Trade: Let’s go to the grain!
With rates in pesos that exceed 80% per year and a government determined to contain the dollar as it gives rise to the October elections, The Carry Trade is a temptation again for investors: selling dollars today, investing in pesos, capturing rent, and repurcharging more green tomorrow.
ANDl Projected yield: between 20% and 25% in pesos in just five months. Translated: between 10% and 12% in dollars. There is no fixed term or remunerated account that can compete with that. But, eye: it is not a trip to fall asleep in the Paraguayan hammock.
Why the alarms of September 15 and 30?
Because the Political and financial market moves with logic of time bombs:
September 15 is the last day “safe” before the pure electoral volatility begins.
September 30 is the last defense line: After that date, the risk of exchange run or desperate economic ads increases exponentially.
SAlir between September 15 and 30 allows us to capture a good part of the profit without being caught in the middle of the pre -election hurricane.
Possible scenarios: dollar under vs. High dollar
- dollar below $ 1,000: It implies that the government manages to contain expectations.
The Carry Trade will be a party: those who bet on the weights will win strong. Probable final rally of bonds and actions.
- Dollar of $ 1,500: Crisis signal, capital leak or confidence collapse.
The Carry becomes a guillotine for the offices. Those who left on time are protected; Those who do not cry on red balances.
Electoral consequences:
Low dollar = Official Chances of Electoral Competitiveness.
Unconcentric dollar = Earth razed politics and new cycle of uncertainty.
The art of not falling asleep in success
Today, jUgar Al Carry Trade is like walking down the tightrope… but with a network below (if alarms are respected). The one who is disciplined and does not marry the momentary success can pocol yields that in Wall Street would envy.
Argentina is not for warm or improvised: it is for those who understand that, in this country, sometimes, the true financial miracle lasts just a few months.
September 15: First alarm. September 30: Departure limit.
He who is attentive will provide in October. He who falls asleep … will have to provide, but with water.
*Specialist lawyer in work and employment.
Source: Ambito
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