Understanding the current Argentine economy requires more than reading figures, fundamental or communications of the IMP It requires knowing how to read between the lines. The semantics of financial power is loaded with nuances that, when they are interpreted precisely, reveal a completely different scenario than the government sells in its public speech. It is not just about technicalities; It is a political, economic and media operation designed to gain time – and dollars – the cost of it.
Luis Caputothe same one that starred in the collapse of the dollar and the “capital escape” under the Macri administration, has returned with a single objective: to sustain a financial speculation architecture where The “Carry Trade” is not a collateral consequence of the model, but its heart. This architecture, made up under the rhetoric of “market confidence” and “international support”, is built day by day on two pillars: the manipulation of the exchange rate and external indebtedness with the International Monetary Fund.
The Government insists on talking about “monitoring” of the agreement with the IMF, when the body already openly uses the term “calibration.” And it is not a technicalism. “Calibrate” means that Argentina did not meet a crucial objective, did not accumulate genuine reserves from the grandiloquent ads of two Friday, did not stabilize inflation, much less built confidence. In ten days, the expected abundance of export dollars did not enter. In return, what did enter was external pressure, uncomfortable inspections from Washington-No visits and support photos “Pour la Galerie”- and, calls of attention less and less diplomats inside doors.
The most serious, however, is that a good part of the electorate – even in sophisticated financial circles – continues to believe in the libertarian story as if it were a salvation table. But behind the manual phrases and social media slogans, what is brewing is a millimeter repetition of errors that we already know. The difference is that this time, the protagonists are not rookies. They are repeat offenders.
Argentina is going through a critical phase, not because of the economic challenges itself -which are well known and structural -but by the systematic manipulation of the official story that tries to cover up, under a varnish of libertarian technicalism, a financial engineering program oriented exclusively to the “carry trace”, while drowning the national productive apparatus. The technical language surrounding the interactions with the IMF, far from being innocent, must be read with surgical precision. There is the truth that the government seeks to cover up.
When Minister Luis Caputo publicly declared that the recent meeting with the International Monetary Fund had been to “monitor” the program, he deliberately omitted a keyword used by the body: “calibrate.” In IMF jargon, calibrate implies a call for attention, an obligatory redirection. Means, neither more nor less, that in the first days the Argentina has not complied with the most basic goal of the program: the accumulation of genuine reserves via exports. It is not about asking for more dollars borrowed or triangulated from friends, but of real currencies, derived from foreign trade, that the country fails to generate for distrust and Deliberate sabotage to the agro -export sector.
The purchase offer of 500 million dollars at $ 999orchestrated by caputo and disseminated by Milei-for the photo- under the threat of raising retentions-At the end of the pause-if the field did not liquidate, it was not an act of economic policy. It was a gesture of “discipline”, almost vindictive, who sought to bend a sector that historically represents the main source of genuine currencies. But the shot came out of the cylinder head; The field rejected the offer, The IMF intimidated the government and, in 48 hours, returned the exchange rate to $ 1,200. That abruptness was not a “calculation error”, but a previous attempt at manipulation that the international market and the IMF received with extreme concern.
The country risk does not fall from the 700 points (in rigor 713)despite the brutal internal adjustment and the license of assets in pesos. – Because? – Because the international actors with whom we dialogue daily do not believe Caputo. And they are not personal judgments, but the consequence of a trajectory that combines improvisation, opacity and extreme dependence on indebtedness.
The supposed “trust” of the IMFso cited by the government, It is a media construction. In practice, Caputo is under direct supervision. They control the minister as if he were a teenager with a credit card. It does not add support, adds totelajes: Kristalina Georgieva, Gita Gopinath and even the secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Besent; Everyone is looking with magnifying glass every movement of the minister. Washington is uncomfortable. Not so much for the macroeconomic inconsistency of the Argentine model, but because The Milei government, recounting to antagonize with China and the BRICS block, When in reality it does not have the real economic response to break those relationships. Unquestionable proof was the renewal of the SWAP with China, after it was asked to end the relationship.
In terms of debt, the panorama is alarming. The debt/GDP ratio is the highest in history. In July they expire 4.5 billion dollars. The cash flow with this rate of exchange is not enough and the markets already discounted that new short -term placements will be used, without support or repayment capacity. In parallel, The last debt exchange in pesos left without renewing 30% of the total. Local distrust is even more eloquent than external, Argentine banks do not want to stay longer with 35% of their assets in treasure bonds in Argentine currency.
The current economic program does not seek to stabilize, nor transform. Seeks win time to pay for the 2024 party and make another “financial bicycle” more in 2025 With the dollars of “Exit” (departure), which benefits a very small circle, fed by offshore operations, exchange manipulation and political complicity. It is a model based on arbitration, not productive investment. A model that already failed in the past, and that today repeats its steps with greater cynicism and less transparency. The level of impunity is huge.
Those who know closely the bowels of Wall Street and travel corridors of Private Equity Funds and World Bank in Washington we know when a government is improvising to gain time. Argentina does not need a “market savior” or a “anti -system messiah.” He needs coherent policies, institutional truth, and a leadership that does not underestimate the intelligence or memory of his citizenship.
Financial engineering that dominates the Argentine economy can last a few more months. Perhaps, hopefully, even the elections. The IMF – in an unusual gesture that few dare to point out – is openly financing Javier Milei’s campaign. They do not say it in those terms, but Kristalina Georgieva suggests, with each carefully chosen phrase, that the organism is willing to tolerate deviations, abuses and structural failures in order to maintain the Argentine experiment breathing until an eventual electoral validation arrives.
But we already toured that path. Martínez de Hoz also had an artificial exchange rate and a scheme based on the financial bicycle. It ended in collapse, nationally debt and a lost decade. In 1987, Alfonsín paid with his early departure the lack of real dollars. In 2001, with Cavallo and Sturzenegger the outcome was tragic and socially irreversible. And in 2018, with Caputo and Sturzenegger as responsible for economic policy, the same model exploded through the air in just months.
Today, some of those names are again in the center of the scenerepeating the same formulas, also with the same actors behind the curtain. None of this is innovation. It is restoration.
The “Financial Bicycle” It is not an economic policy, It is a sophisticated legal scam. While a few are enriched by arbitrating rates and currencies buying time, national industry, SMEs, agriculture and formal and informal employment are discouraged. The price of this strategy will be all paid, as we pay every time the experiment is repeated. Only this time, deception disguises itself as “freedom.”
And when mirage dissipates, what will remain will not be a revolution, but an eternal adjustment without horizon. The story is written. What is missing to define is who dares to read it in real time.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
