The market begins to recognize the intention of ordering accounts and recovering access to credit. Today, investing is not an option: it is a necessity not to lose purchasing power.
In a year hinge for Argentina, the first signs of macroeconomic order begin to be reflected in the main variables: the government managed to chain 14 consecutive months of financial surplus, international reserves exceeded US $ 38,000 million Thanks to the support of multilateral organisms, and Monthly inflation begins to decelerate, with estimates below 3.7% for April.
In parallel, the official exchange rate went to an administered flotation scheme, and although there was an initial leap of 11%, the exchange market remained relatively stable in the following weeks. This set of signals suggests a transition stage: structural challenges persist, but The market begins to recognize the intention of ordering accounts and recovering access to credit.
Internationally, attention is still placed in inflation in the United States and the Federal Reserve Rate policy. Although there is still no confirmation about when the low cycle will begin, the markets discount that it could occur in the second semester, which could reactivate the appetite for risk in emerging markets and favor flows to Argentine assets. You also have to see the implications that Trump’s trade war has
The news in markets: How does this translate into investment decisions?
Faced with this mixed context, I recommend working with a layer strategy, which combines short and medium term instruments, inflation coverage and exchange rate, and a controlled risk quota to capture opportunities.
A balanced portfolio could contemplate:
- LECAPS or FCI Money Market as a refuge in very short term pesos or treasury management.
- Hard Dollar bonds (such as A30 or GD35) for those who believe in a country normalization.
- Corporate Ons in dollars, with maturities between 2030, as a more stable alternative within the dollar segment such as Telecom NAFT or YPF YMCXO with Tir close to 8%.
- Yields from global companies or indices such as S&P 500 or Nasdaq (SPy – QQ), ideal for those who seek to diversify in developed markets without moving the country’s money.
For more aggressive profiles, the Argentine Equity is again in the conversation. While it is still volatile, current prices and political-economic context could lead to relevant increases if the fiscal course is consolidated. Actions such as YPF, for their key role in Vaca Muerta, Pampa, for their operational solidity, or banks such as Galicia and Supervielle, with historically low value value, appear as reasonable bets.
Investments: Timing matters, but even more the process
Beyond the chosen asset, the differential is marked by a good financial planning, with periodic overfives, long -term vision and constant risk monitoring. The recommendation is clear: avoid impulsive decisions, maintain liquidity to take advantage of opportunities and build robust wallets that do not depend on a single scenario.
Today, investing is not an option: it is a necessity not to lose purchasing power. But doing so strategically and accompanied by professionals can make the difference between a good play and an expensive error.
* Partner in AT Investments
Source: Ambito
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