After the elimination of the restrictions on the purchase of currencies, the weight not only was not devalued, but the parallel contributions descended strongly approaching the value of the officer.
On April 14, the Government left the exchange pressures of the previous weeks by means of a leap forward: The elimination of stocks. The masterful political play was crowned by a surprising result, after the elimination of the restrictions on the purchase of currencies, the weight not only did not devalue, but the parallel contributions descended strongly approaching the value of the officer. While the play had a resounding support from Trump, whose pressure facilitated disbursements for US $ 13,465 m for international organizations – US $ 12,000 m corresponding to the IMF YU $ S1.465 m additional from other organisms-,, The stabilization of the dollar was carried out within the new flotation bands without requiring the intervention of the Central Bank.
The departure of the stocks with a decrease in financial dollars without intervention from the Central Bank It is surprising in a country used to the fact that exchange pressures are usually crowned by an abrupt devaluation jump. But even more strange is that while the dollar stabilized, savers increased their deposits in foreign currency. Between April 11 and 23, bank deposits in dollars of the private sector increased by US $ 1,032 M. In that same period, dollars in cash in the hands of the banks descended US $ 640m, to attend withdrawals from their customers. That is, after the departure of the stocks, the value of the financial dollar descended without intervention from the Central Bank, while the demand for savers’ dollars in the banks increased. The question about who financed the accumulation of deposits of the savers.
A first possibility is that grain exporters have been. However, the attitude of the cereal was cautious and the liquidation had very low levels in the first days of the length of the stocks. But if they were not exporters, who could offer dollars to meet the demand of savers and force a decrease pronounced in financial contributions? Some atypical operations in the exchange market, such as sales for important amounts when the dollar threatened to exceed 1,200 pesos on April 14 to 1p.m. Stabilizing abruptly its quote, or offers downward as soon as the market would have the following days, they seem to give the track that an actor used bulky resources to force a decreasing trend in the price of the dollar within the flotation bands.
If we take into account that the main interested in that the dollar did not shoot was the economic team, it is logical to search the institutions under their command to a possible auditor. Reviewing the government deposits of the government in the Central Bank (weekly available in the information of its balance), it is observed that After the departure of the CEPO, they increased by US $ 11.894 m product of the entry of the credits of international organizations. But the figure is US $ 1,766 m less than the amount of the credits granted by said agencies. If it is discounted that in April $ S341 m expired with organizations, it remains without explaining the destination of US $ 1,425 m, a figure that fits with the demand of savers to accumulate deposits and leaves a rest of possible loss in the market to guide the price between bands.
If it was confirmed that the treasure has already used US $ 1,425 m of the recent credits received to finance the accumulation of dollars in dollars from the private sector, we would be reliving the sad experience of the last great credit of the IMF in 2018. On that occasion, the US $ 44,500 m received from the agency were mostly used to try to contain the dollar against the demand of the private sector. The result was an increasingly indebted state in hard currency and a private sector with greater assets abroad. The fact that many of the protagonists of that time are part of the current cast, gives indications of a possible recidivism.
Source: Ambito
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