The Argentine economy It crosses a moment of change. The recent one flexibility of the exchange rate, an environment of more competitive real interest rates and signals of incipient recovery In some activity variables, they open a new scenario for investors seeking to position themselves strategically.
In this context, two market sectors are positioned with special attractiveness in the medium/long term: The energy, and the financial -They, specifically, to the opportunities of a macro that continues to order.
But what do we have to monitor as investors? Among these, the process of standardization of the exchange market -yet underway. Although There are still challenges, And surely we must wait to trust that we are in a stable economy, the possibility of operating more freely in the change market is a positive signal for long -term investments. Therefore, Following the exchange rate closely and understanding how the new band system works is key to choosing financial assets.
Another variable is interest rates. After several years of high inflation, analyze The real yield of investments in pesos becomes fundamental. It will be key to observe if the Caiós, Lecaps (or FCIS of Lecaps) or bonds They offer rates that exceed the inflation. This analysis will help decide if it is convenient to continue positioned in pesos, dollarize part of the portfolio or include instruments adjusted by CER to protect purchasing power.
Finally, although the evolution of the economy shows some more benefited sectors than others, some activity indicators begin to stabilize or grow in specific sectors. In a country accustomed to volatility, these recovery signs invite you to look closely to those sectors with better structural foundations.
Based on this, there are two sectors that stand out for their importance and attractiveness -always under a medium and long term horizon.
Opportunities in the energy sector
The energy is one of the sectors with greater future perspectivesin large part, by the wealth of unconventional resources in Vaca Muerta, combined with him Global interest in alternative supplies. This positions Argentina as a relevant player in the market of oil and gas. In addition, the export potential of the sector, in a context where it seeks to accumulate reserves, makes it strategic for local macroeconomy.
Within this universe, some companies deserve special attention. YPF, as leader in production and exploration; VEnergy istawith private and agile management that has managed to capitalize on unconventional development; Pampa energy, diversified in oil, gas and electricity; and South gas transporter (TGS), key in the business of Midstream (storage, processing) and gas transport, among others.
Infrastructure projects, such as gas pipelines to expand the evacuation capacity of Vaca Muerta, as well as LNG export agreements under discussion, reinforce the long -term thesis for the sector.
Opportunities in the financial sector
If the economy follows a standardization process, The financial sector could be another of the great beneficiaries in the short and medium term. Today the private/GDP credit ratio in Argentina is one of the lowest in the region, which marks a wide margin of potential growth.
Macroeconomic stabilization, combined with a low rate and descent inflation, can lay the foundations for a Financial intermediation recovery process. In this scenario, banks (which have already had an exponential “upside” in S&P Merval in 2024) They could continue to recover value.
Among the entities to consider are Galicia Financial Group, Banco Macro and BBVAall with solid market positions, wide deposit base and experience in handling challenging scenarios.
In conclusion, beyond the short -term situation, there are sectors of the Argentine economy that, with solid foundations and accompanied by a more stable context, can offer Interesting investment opportunities.
Likewise, from the educational area we suggest performing a personalized analysis according to each investor profile, investment horizon and objectives to adapt the general conditions to individuals or personal.
PPI analyst
Source: Ambito
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