The author warns that the agreement with the IMF has three goals that are not being fulfilled: total exit of the exchange rate, not intervene in any markets of the exchange rate and accumulation of reserves.
Argentina when April 11 announced the granting from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not only did they clarify anything but inclusive We learned (from the IMF) of some goals that it should meet:
- Total exit of the exchange rate
- Do not intervene in any markets of the exchange rate
- Accumulation of reservations
From the novelties we have is that None of those 3 points are complying with For these data:
- There is no total exit of the exchange rate because the companies cannot turn the dividends obtained until 2025 to their matrices houses but through a new series of Bopreal bonds in US dollars at 5 years, the same ones that gave importers for the debt in pesos that the National State had for the period included between August 2023 and April 2024. They can only turn abroad funds from April 14 last last last people, it is as if they were preparing a path for a new generation of external assets just as in 2018 -we always call it breaking the statute of the IMF that prohibits these practices and worse if they do it with funds from that agency.
- Before non -intervention in the exchange markets, it is not complying with it either. Consequence that from April 14 to Wednesday, April 30 used US $ 1,700 million in bonds of the year 2030 of the new debt arranged with the bonds to intervene directly in the CCL and MEP by lowering them about $ 150 between those 2 dates preceding. Since with that decline in stock market dollars they drag the blue dollar.
- At this point it has two facts that assemble the breach: the 1st point is that before the constant squeezes of Mr. President with their expressions “… they liquidate now because on July 1 they return to their normal value the withholdings…” but what they do not tell you is that The agreement establishes not only the return of the withholdings to its previous levels but also to the maximum possible stop (33%) and also that through the collection agency every time they make a declaration of exports they squeeze them to liquidate them losing fortunes for the payment of discounted interests in the credit letters for export prefinancing; And the 2nd point to keep in mind is that accordingly of the 1st field, it resolved to invest again in Silobolsas, as expressed in February at Expoagro, and liquidate the indispensable to continue subsisting.
As a result of those points we had last Wednesday (April 30) we had a level of international gross reserves of the BCRA of US $ 38,960 knowing that on Monday, April 28, they were US $ 39,279 million, therefore only in 48 hours those reserves descended US $ 319 million only because imports were paid again -which did not pass since the announcement of April 14 of the announcement of April 14 pseudo-opening of the stocks. In addition to all this, it is very important to understand that the BCRA and the Ministry of Economy are looking for a repo (loan of very short term- for US $ 2,000 million which would have a destination to cover part of the payment to the bonists who must cover the 1st installment 2025 that is effective on July 9 for a total of U $ 4.8 billion which reinforces the data that if it could not be fulfilled “Euphenism” Lacunzian of “We are going to impact the debt” so as not to say we are not going to pay them and therefore defaulso what would fly through the air the country’s level of risk that on Friday reached 741 basic points when Wednesday was in 723.
But never returned to 495 basic points of the month of the end of February/early March 2025. As a corollary of this on Monday, May 5, gross reserves can even fall to less than 38,200 million consequence of payments to the IMF of a little more than 600 million and the average negative balance of 160 million daily import payments against exporters’ income.
All this always means that the useless sacrifice to which they submitted to the people from 12/12/2023 to date not only has no support in reality, but even cannot even sustain a disinflation account consequence that from January 2025 onwards has been growing.
Economic and Tax Analyst
Source: Ambito
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