Specialized journalism was concentrated in what the government proposed and only commented and analyzed: The monthly variation. Which led to continue the confusion that is dragged from the Vidal government where the trigger clause is implemented and the peers began to discuss months forward. That stops using the work situation in relation to prices twelve months back. Inflation arises from the estimated data 12 months to the back, the monthly only tells us as a various from one month to another. Confusion and great chainsaw. Therefore, economics specialists repeated in chorus “low inflation”, without questioning much more, but reality showed them that in the interviews the worker contradicted that phrase why? Why does the worker know when he squeezes the shoe.
A detail in these times, is it weird that a former official of the 2012-2015 period now criticize Jauretche?
The effect of the devaluation of 120%had a process, first in the December data, 2024 inflation was 197% (AI = twelve months), in January 2025 it was 236% (AI) until it reached April and its peak of 290% (AI), this levels of high inflation impacted on salary. Salaries were adjusted by monthly variation and that disorder the discussion. Another variable that had an impact and that was not reflected in the CPI was the rate adjustment. The government was tactical slowed down the increases and the AUH and the feed card. But all specialists know that the ponderator food and beverages represents 30% and rates a 10% incidence in the monthly construction of the CPI. Which also generates more controversial. Mainly because the rentals exceeded the peers.
The salary adjustment was conducted by the government discursively, that only after almost a year of inflation of 290% (Abb24) seems that salaries do not reach this year. Seeing the graphic the first four -month period of 2024 was a sidereal adjustment for all. Although in April of this year the monthly variation of 4% year -on -year inflation (AI) could reach 50% making some estimates. To change the trend, inflation, monthly variation (CPI) should give 8% or more.
The devaluation of 120%, accelerate the prices of food and drinks fundamentally, and different impact between the registered private wage earners (They have other rights such as vacations, bonus, social work and seniority), secondly, are The public wage earner agreeing joints below the monthly and interannual variations and finally The unregistered (Social and independent monotributista, autonomous). The shoe squeezes differently according to the type of work that each one has.
Besides, There is also the detail that the government intervened in this situationin addition to the discursive, in some peers to leave them below the monthly variation -not discussing the inflation of twelve months -few journalists echoed, and few specialists raised it. What all agree is that inflation in dollars grew. Chainsaw, confusion and coercion over workers.
Milei and Caputo’s economic policy is a liberal tetra tetra to set the exchange rate, this is macro 1 of the Asiain – Malic manual, to achieve a dollar a dollar equal to a thousand pesos, but there is an inconvenience, it requires constantly outfitting currencies. The way to obtain currencies is by foreign trade, devaluation – but it is very short term – and indebtedly abroad, what did the geniuses of the economy do? Borrow with the IMF. Not even international markets today are encouraged to finance Argentina. The majority of indebtedness today is in pesos, equivalent to 100,000 million dollars, and international organizations. There is nothing new in the front. The intervention of the United States is economical – with the FMI- and now military in the Paraná River, will a second round of obligatory be necessary? TMAP
Milei’s economic policy is bread for today, hunger for tomorrow. Although we are in the flotation scheme under the IMF conditions, they talk that the flotation is not devaluation, another zoncera. In the government they repeat “floating is not devaluing”, they resemble the clown of the IT movie that said: Float, ”It rose,“ float, Georgie. And when you are down here, with me, you will also float. Many are already floating for fiscal, salary and tariff adjustment.
The problem is that those who are below, given the misinterpretation of those who eat three times a day, are not floating. They are adjusted, precarious and with greater chances of not getting out of informality. A point to keep in mind is that informality reached 42% according to the latest INDEC report. Here it also occurs as with the IPC weighter, the construction of the CPI every month dismissed the increase we had for tariff adjustment, we give an example, In electrical energy inflation in March 2024 had a 415% peak and then declined to take 378% in September 2024, and then descend to 333% in January 2025. We had all 2024 with a rate adjustment of almost 370% average. How much was the parity in 2024? Let’s observe the averages taking into account inflation and increased wages (private, public and unregistered). What happens with the informality data is that although it shows the data of the private house workers does not show the informality data in the agricultural sector. The agriculture put it in the “other branches” sector, why will they not give the informality data in the agricultural sector?
Returning to the above, we will take the private and public data because the unregistered data -Proxi Informalidad- has a five -month lag. In 2023 the average inflation was 127%, the salary increase of the private wage earner was 122%and the public 129%, in that year The private lost 5 percentage points while the public barely exceed 2 percentage points to inflation.
During 2024 the average inflation was 236% but the private ones achieved an average increase of 213% while the public wage earner barely achieved an increase of 165%, the difference shows the brutal salary adjustment: The private ones lost 13 percentage points and public workers (teachers, police, doctors and national administration) More than 70 percentage points.
The salary adjustment in 2024considering 2023, It evidences a loss of purchasing power in 28% in private wage earnings and 69% in the public wage earner. Therefore, consumption falls and in the absence of consumption, many businesses have to increase too much but remain without selling, in the worst case they have to fire workers or pass them from a monotax dependency relationship to reduce the effects of the devaluation of Milei and Caputo.
Finally, to the salary adjustment, the growing informality must be added The layoffs in the private and public sector. Between January 2025 and December 2023 in the private sector, almost 120,000 workers were dismissed, mainly in construction, textiles, hotel and restaurants and transport. Among the public employees taking the data of the INDEC report that publishes on the National Public Administration, companies and State societies, in the same period, they said goodbye to more than 47,000 workers, mostly person in a collective work agreement and others (it includes other modalities of linking that do not imply employment relationship, not included in the previous categories and that suppose to perform a common task of the agency. carried out under cooperative entities and international credit organizations, internships and eventual works, among other). Every march according to the plan (TMAP) “headless, no hands and no heart.”
UBA economist, a teacher and unala
Source: Ambito
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