On April 11, 2025, the Government officially announced the exit of the exchange rate. The measure, long expected by the market, marked a turning point in the country’s financial dynamics. Since then, Argentine assets have shown a clear positive reaction. The driver needed to continue with the course of the economic plan. The financial exchange rate decompressed rapidly.
The dollar counted with liquidation, which was quoted about $ 1,400, fell to levels around $ 1,100 in later days. A flotation scheme administered with bands between $ 1,000 and $ 1,400 was established, which gave the market predictability and drastically reduced the exchange gap.
The dollar bonds were the first to reflect the change of weather. They rose up to 15% in hard currency, which helped the country risk will pierce the 700 points, A level that was not seen from the payment of coupons in January.
This drops not only has an impact on the price of the bonds, but it can also be the Decisive factor for the entry of international institutional capital. Global funds have restrictions to invest in countries with high country risk. By mandate, they cannot invest in economies without free entry and exit of capital, which limits the ability to repatriate funds and discourage investment. That technical barrier had kept Argentine assets, especially shares, outside the radar of large investors.
Country risk decline changes that reality: It begins to put Argentina again in the menu of many global portfolios, especially emerging. This takes on special relevance to the share market. Argentine companies – participating in the energy sector, such as Oil & Gas – reach this new environment in a stronger position than in previous years: With cleaner balances, lower levels of debt and international prices that benefit them. In many cases, leading actions are close to historical maximums.
The Financial Board is rearranged
An environment of lower country risk, with access to new flows and lower exchange distortion, could be the catalyst for these companies to break their maximums again. The exit -Partial- of the CEPO does not solve all macro imbalances, but the financial board reorders. The market stopped operating with extreme distortions, And that allows prices to begin to reflect foundations. In this new environment, Argentine assets return to compete for global flows with a more normalized logic -and with a window of opportunity that was not seen a long time ago, at least since the imposition of the stocks, more than six years ago.
In conclusion, we see an attraction in what is the Fixed rate curve in pesosparticularly because of the fact that this exit from the stocks and this implementation of a new exchange scheme gives it more stability to the exchange rate movement, And the reality is that if this scenario continues with a country’s low risk and a greater parity of sovereign bonds in dollars, it is because the exchange rate remained stable.
For those who want a little more risk, we see opportunity in the longest part of the curve in what are the Boncaps, perhaps the T13F6.
And for those who are more conservative and simply want to take advantage of the exchange stability scenario and not buy a bonus with a high duration, and therefore volatility, we recommend the Fund in coconut pesos, cocosdaruma.
Gold Cocos Financial Advisor
Source: Ambito
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