The Argentine economy is going through a stage of apparent macroeconomic stabilization, sustained by an orthodox strategy that has won the favor of certain segments of the financial market. He unified exchange ratethe containment of core inflation and the entry of foreign exchange via external financing configure a pause scenario in the crisis. However, under this orderly surface Signals of accumulated tensions begin to emerge that could compromise the sustainability of the current model. Structural fragility, far from dissipating, mutates in new less visible, but potentially explosive forms.
The recent evolution of monetary aggregates, particularly the recoil of the transactional M2 with respect to the programmed levels, suggests a contractive policy that, although it contains inflation, also restricts the internal circulation of capital. This brake on domestic liquidity is conjugated with increasing indebtedness and the persistent dollarization of private portfolios. To this are added the imbalances of the balance of payments: while exports grow at a moderate pace, imports are triggered with an inverse logic to the expected one, deteriorating the current account and anticipating an external bottleneck.
Thus, the current balance seems to depend less on real foundations than on transient anchors such as the entry of multilateral loans and short -term financial speculation. The risk is that this precarious balance is maintained by inertia, without solving the background imbalances, incubating a new crisis under the illusion of control. In a context where speeches celebrate deregulation and fiscal discipline, structural questions are still unanswered: how long can this macroeconomic architecture be sustained without causing social and financial damage in the medium term?
The evolution of monetary policy has shown mixed advances and setbacks. The unified exchange rate ranges around $ 1,200 at the midpoint of the bands. The behavior of the exchange rate has helped this month with the “inflation expectations.” Market equilibrium points are consistent with inflation levels, which average around 2 % intermencing for the third quarter, with inflation in December 2025 converging at 1.8 % intermennsual (Ceteris Paribus).
The behavior of the exchange rate after reunification, together with the anticipation of the transfer effect of the exchange rate observed in March, has led to the investment banking departments to be reviewed the inflation of April, to 3% intermensual.
Regarding the evolution of monetary aggregates, the reference level of the transactional M2 reached around 48 billion pesos at the end of the month. This level is 8.3 % below the level scheduled by the end of the second quarter, according to the BCRA in the document that accompanied the changes of monetary policy of mid -April. Although they have emphasized that these levels seem to be referential, the level of the transactional M2 is at a very tight level, since inflation will be expected to accumulate around 4.10% in the next two months and that the economy will continue to grow.
Liquid reserves increased, driven by the initial disbursement of the IMF of US $ 12,000 million, but gross reserves continue to fall for payments and the lack of accumulation of genuine dollars.
The Balance Balance on Caja Base, showed an acceleration of imports of goods and services in March and a slowdown of exports. The data are worrisome because they show that cash exports registered US $ 5,300 million, an annual increase of 5.5%. For their part, imports registered US $ 8 billion, with an annual increase, which, the service account deficit amounted to US $ 800 million. Looking ahead, the government should correct the situation within its powers to implement a recovery of exports in the second quarter, as suggested by what has been said, thinking about the commercialization of the new soybean harvest and currency sales, while imports should be slowed down in some way.
In this way, it seems unlikely that the BCRA increases net reserves through purchases this quarter. The economic authorities indicated that the objectives of RIN (gross international reserves) for the second and third quarter should be taken cautiously, since the BCRA is not expected to buy inside the bands. Multilateral credit tickets are expected to boost the RIN in around US $ 2,000 million this quarter (there are US $ 500 million), which could be sufficient to meet the objective. With that it seems that it reaches the officials.
Reconetization requires more adjustments for the process to develop without setbacks.
Before the shortage of liquidity in pesos to pay the “Carry Trade” or “Financial Bicycle”the Treasury decided to resort to the BCRA accounting profits for the payment of interest in the debt in pesos that he won, with a renewal of only 70% in the last auction. It should be noted that the treasure currently has 16 billion pesos in deposits in the BCRA, plus another 9 billion pesos in treasure deposits in public banks, while debt maturities in local currency until October amount to 50 billion pesos this is half and, represents only 75% of which are in the hands of the private sector. The evaluation of the system will be difficult, due to the strong volatility of the rates. The IMF and the market expect additional measures to facilitate the remumination of both currencies (with the Caputo dollar he intends to give us a surprise).
From a critical look, questions about the underlying logic of recent economic decisions begin to emerge. The appeal to the accounting profits of the BCRA to cover interests of the debt in pesos – in a context of partial renewal of maturities – evidence not only a liquidity problem, but also a sign of fatigue of domestic financing. In an environment of highly volatile rates and fragmented primary market, the treasure maneuver margin seems to narrow week by week, undressing a growing dependence on financial arbitration and external disbursements.
Reconetization indicators also offer certainties. While the Carry Trade It has brought some speculative capital, its reversibility is extreme and its net effect on the real economy is limited. To this is added the pressure of a balance of payments that shows a structural deficit of services and a vulnerability to any external shock. The current economic model – based on monetary anchors and fiscal discipline – is partly supported by the hope of a record harvest and an export rebound that still does not materialize clearly. The risk, then, is not only macroeconomic, but also narrative; A success story about still unstable foundations is built.
Faced with this panorama, the crucial question is whether they are not accumulating again – as in other stages of our silent history that, when freeing, could have disruptive effects. Is this model a transitory order or the threshold of a new crisis? Argentine economic history teaches that the moments of apparent calm usually precede abrupt ruptures. Perhaps the most dangerous is not chaos, but the illusion of having conjured it too soon.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito
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