This article analyzes the Argentine economic situation based on numbers, making special emphasis on the configuration of the national economic team. It is proposed that, far from conducting a sustainable stabilization program, the policies implemented replicate practices of speculative trading, with potentially fatal consequences on production, real salary, employment, pension system and social stability. From a brief documentary and qualitative quantitative approach, it is warned about the limits of the current political-financial experiment.
Argentina since April 11, 2025 seems, at first glance, to live a financial spring. The official dollar looks stable, the markets celebrate the “fiscal surplus” and the IMF applauds the reformist vocation of the government. However, under that polished surface by traders accrued officials, beats a fragilized, liquefied and dangerously conditioned economy. We propose to unravel the logic behind the ongoing experiment, more related to a financial arbitration strategy than with a rational economic program.
As Michael Lewis (1989) states in his seminal portrait about Wall Street: “The truth is an unnecessary luxury”. That maxim seems to have been adopted as a state policy. (The poker of the liarby Michael Lewis, Editorial encouragement, 1989)
From the Keynesian state to the “Trader State”
The passage of a state model focused on production and work towards another dominated by financial logic is not new. But in the current Argentine administration acquires extreme characteristics; The State not only submits to the rules of speculative capital, but is directly managed by its former operators.
This phenomenon, which we call “Trader state”represents an institutional mutation in which the classic functions of the Treasury and BCRA are absorbed by a short -term ethos, typical of the money table. There is no economic policy, there are forms and screens. There is no driving, there are spreads.
The actors integrate what could be called the “Brotherhood of the Poquer of the Liar.” Except for the president, all of them were formed in the universe of global finances: JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Qfr Capital Management. None comes from the real economy, public administration or productive development, including Milei. His experience is in arbitration, financial engineering, the use of derived instruments, and the design of “stories and businesses for external swallow investors”.
The consequences of this formation are visible in each decision of the economic team are present, indebtedness, exchange repression, opening without control of speculative and suspicious capitals, license of pension liabilities and dismantling of the state apparatus.
Fiscal fiction, real adjustment
One of the most widespread stories is that of the “genuine fiscal surplus.” According to official statements, Argentina would have achieved primary equilibrium in 2024 and the first months 2025. However, this supposed achievement is based on payment postponements, liquefy of retirement spending, debts with suppliers and provinces, and an aggressive placement of internal debt.
Between January 2024 prior to April 11, 2025, the public debt increased around 110,000 billion pesos in financial commitments, mainly in indexed pesos or tied to the dollar. To this we must now add 14.5 billion dollars of a “Repo”, World Bank and IMF already disbursed, plus about 10,000 million dollars that will soon enter, according to the Government he advanced. The internal debt is multiplied in silence while the BCRA artificially holds the exchange rate with Real positive rates in dollars that feed a New and extravagant Carry Trade cycle.
In the eyes of the market, it is “trust”; For the real economy, it is a time bomb.
The recharged financial bike version 2025
With a semi -fixed official exchange rate that fell artificially and 55%TEA, the incentive for arbitrations between pesos and dollars is irresistible. The result: Massive input of swallow capital, exchange overvaluation and brake on real exports.
The president of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili, leads a monetary policy that prioritizes the interests of the financial system over any notion of development. Far from neutralizing speculation, the current system institutionalizes it.
Informal dollarization and cultural leakage
Latent instability has produced a parallel phenomenon; the informal dollarization. Although an official policy has not been formalized in this regard, the domestic economy already works largely under a dollar pattern. Liquefied wages, indexed contracts and structural distrust in weight consolidate a social psychology of dollarization. The national currency loses centrality and, with it, the sovereign power of the State.
Productive and social impact. The party of few, the adjustment of many
While traders celebrate Bloomberg, the local industry agonizes. The real salary and retirement have fallen strongly compared to 2023. Structural unemployment grows in the country’s industrial cords and fixed internal gross investment is strongly contracting. The adjustment falls almost exclusively on the most vulnerable sectors and the middle class.
The demolition of the pension system is just a sample. Consumer collection falls, contributions collapse and minimal retirements lose purchase power month by month. The alleged fiscal discipline is, strictly speaking, a regressive adjustment.
Lighting without controls
One of the most controversial measures promoted by the Government is the legalization of the entry of funds not declared without obligation to justify origin. Under the “opening to capital” costume, a money laundering mechanism that makes the country is enshrined into Informal Capital Lady. Far from encouraging productive investments, it is an offshore financial enclave within the national territory.
The calm before the storm
The year 2025 may officially project with an appearance of stability. But that calm is illusory. Behind the exchange rate content and surplus story, macroeconomic imbalances that threaten to explode are accumulated. Repressed inflation, increasing debt, falling consumption and generalized social discomfort make up a time bomb that is not resolved with television statements.
The economic team, far from designing a development strategy, plays with the patience of citizenship and credulity of investors. As in “The Poquer of the Liar”, everything is based on holding the story until no one is left with chips to continue betting. When the game ends, the actors of the tragedy will no longer be. But the account, as always, will remain for the country.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
