A recent statement by the spokesman for the Ministry of Economy, Felipe Núñez, at the close of his streaming program “The Three Anchors”, is not entirely comforting in financial circles: “We do not come to buy reservations, we come to lower inflation and lower taxes”. The phrase, pronounced with the forcefulness of a holder, summarizes the position of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) and the government of Javier Milei, who have opted for Do not intervene in the change market to accumulate dollars, unless the exchange rate has the floor of the exchange band, adjusted daily downward with a monthly 1% rate.
This decision, although aligned with the priority objective of disinflation, raises serious questions about the sustainability of international reserves and the confidence of investors, in a context where the fulfillment of the goals with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the reduction of the country risk are imperative.
A precarious balance: IMF reserves and goals
The Net International BCRA reserves, currently at a negative level of USD 5.9 billion, are a critical point on the Argentine economic agenda. The agreement with the IMF establishes that, by mid -2025, they should reduce their negative balance Au $ 2.6 billion, an ambitious objective that requires a sustained accumulation of foreign currency. Traditionally, the purchase of dollars in the single and free market (MULC) has been a key tool to strengthen reserves. However, the economic team has opted for alternative strategies, prioritizing the stability of the exchange rate and the fight against inflation, which in April 2025 registered 2.8%, according to INDEC, a fall against the data of March but even higher than that registered in the October-February period.
Instead of intervening directly in the Mulc, the BCRA probably resorts to financial instruments subscribed in dollars but payable in pesos, and repurchase (repo) operations with international banks, using assets such as gold reserves or Brepreal own as collateral. These operations, which in January 2025 added liquidity in dollars without requiring direct purchases, have allowed the BCRA to accumulate gross reserves and move towards the agreement with the IMF. However, net reserves, which discount liabilities in foreign currency such as SWAP with China or tank lace in dollars, remain a structural challenge.
The market look: genuine reserves and country risk
For investors, the accumulation of reserves is not only a technical issue, but a sign of economic strength. Recent data show a clear correlation between the purchases of dollars by the BCRA and the reduction of the country risk, measured by the EMBI+ index of JP Morgan. Between December 2023 and April 2025, periods of active intervention in the MULC coincided with a country risk fall from 1,200 to 600-700 basic points. This relationship is not accidental: the accumulation of genuine reserves – that, dollars obtained by exports or commercial surplus, instead of loans – reduces the perception of external vulnerability and improves the confidence in the ability to pay the sovereign debt.
The Government has demonstrated an unwavering commitment to fulfilling its financial obligations, but the lack of liquid dollars generates doubts about its ability to sustain this discipline in time. Debt matches in 2026 and 2027, combined with the need to refinance liabilities in a context of high global rates, require a lower country risk, ideally in the range of 400-500 basic points, to access the voluntary credit market. In this sense, the accumulation of genuine reserves is seen by analysts as a necessary condition to decompress financial pressures and align market expectations.
The cost of disinflation: an anchored dollar and its consequences
The decision not to buy dollars reflects the government’s priority to maintain the exchange rate near the floor of the exchange band, a strategy designed to anchor inflationary expectations. A lower dollar reduces the cost of imported goods and moderates pressure on prices, a critical factor in a country where inflation remains the main obstacle to macroeconomic stability. However, this policy has a cost: by refraining from intervening in the Mulc, the BCRA loses a key window to accumulate reservations at a time of high export seasonality, particularly between April and June, when the commercial surplus generates a significant offer of foreign exchange.
In addition, the purchase of dollars by the BCRA implies the issuance of pesos, which can exacerbate inflationary pressures in a context of excess liquidity. To mitigate this risk, the Government should use alternatives, such as financing currency purchases with the Treasury Fiscal Survey or selling bonds in pesos of the BCRA portfolio to absorb liquidity ..
The clock runs: opportunities and risks
The current moment is important. The seasonality of agricultural exports offers a unique opportunity for BCRA to accumulate dollars without generating significant distortions in the exchange market. If the BCRA does not capitalize on this window in the next 30 to 45 days, the currency offer will decrease in the second half of the year, complicating compliance with the IMF goals and increasing external vulnerability. The recent flexibility of the exchange rate, implemented in April 2025, has encouraged export settlement and reduced the gap between the official dollar and the, but the transition to a floating exchange rate within a band requires careful management to avoid volatility.
The risks are not minor. The balance between disinflation, accumulation of reserves and financial stability is, in the words of a market analyst, “a high precision juggling.”
A roadmap for stability
The challenge of the BCRA and the government is clear: strengthening reserves without compromising advances in the fight against inflation or eroding market confidence. To achieve this, the economic team could consider a hybrid strategy that combines selective interventions in the MULC during the export supply peaks with a more intensive use of instruments repo to manage the liquidity in dollars. Likewise, the deepening of the fiscal surplus – which reached 0.2% of GDP in the first four -month period of 2025 – could release resources to finance currency purchases without resorting to monetary issuance.
The accumulation of genuine reserves is not only a technical goal, but a sign of commitment to long -term sustainability. In a country where the memory of exchange crises is still fresh, the strength of the BCRA is an essential pillar to recover the confidence of investors and lay the foundations for sustained growth. Priority is disinflation, but without robust reservations, the path to stability will continue to be a narrow path.
Economist
Source: Ambito
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