Always low inflation does not mean an improvement in economic activity.
To understand the real level of the economy of our country and because we are as we must see two factors the IPC (monthly and interannual) and economic activity: but to exemplify it better and compare it even more and better, let’s do it with the month of April of the last three constitutional periods (2017, 2021 and 2025).
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We must understand the social context and means neither more nor less than while in 2017 with an economy that began to fall due to the use of electoral strategies that would culminate in a brutal recession that granted a use of installed capacity less than 47% in the late 2019 with annual inflation of 54.8%.
While in 2021 leaving a total stoppage of the world, consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, an interannual inflation of 46.3% with an economic activity in recovery was possessed as shown in the indicator of the month.
To finish the analysis in 2025 the year -on -year inflation is 47.3%, which is greater than the year -on -year of 2021 when we were leaving that stoppage. On the other hand, when comparing the economic activity we realize that today, we even have a lower level of economic activity derived from the auto -infling dention depression by the depreciation of 118% of the exchange rate performed at 48 hours of initiated the current government.
That is, that a low inflation always does not mean an improvement in economic activity, as a demonstration of this we can see that in 2001 we had in the midst of a recession that began at the end of 1998 we had monthly indicators of -0.5 and -1%.
Today with salaries that are not free, because placing a top of 1% monthly increase means that they are not free but are reflected in values close to 35% of the average price increase. Or what is the same the worker can only buy 35% of what prices increased. Reflection of this is that the use of installed capacity decreased to 54%, being not far from the values of that indicator we had in 2019. It should be clarified that all the values expressed are publications made at the time by INDEC.
Therefore, we continue to insist that it was not necessary to submit the Argentine people to this useless sacrifice and now that it will increase with the announcements made in the last week. For example, the elimination of benefits from Free Zone of Tierra del Fuego which ends up generating a very large accumulation of unemployment, which some representatives of foundations close to the Government wanted to reassure the waters that decided to grant an internal taxes from 9.5% to 0% forgetting that such actions must pass through the National Congress that is the only one that can establish creations/modifications/disposal of taxes.
Economic and Tax Analyst
Source: Ambito
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