With an international context that offers some relief and a local front that begins to show stability signs, New opportunities are opened for investors, both individuals and companies, that today have liquidity surplus and seek where to position themselves. Indeed, the current situation requires a Cauta strategy, with a short -term look and a balanced combination of pesos and dollars.
To begin, it is key to analyze the global context. The last week brought some relief to financial marketspromoted by encouraging news about the Dialogue between China and the United States Regarding the tariff scheme.
This approach, which resulted in an “principle of agreement”, had a positive impact on both fixed and variable income assets, and generated a Appreciation of emerging currencies, together with generalized increases in international markets.
Local stability signals
At the local level, less volatility in the spot exchange rate was observedwhich remained inside the strip of $ 1,140 to $ 1,160 per dollar. In addition, on Wednesday, April inflation data was known, which was 2.8%.
This figure surprised positively, overcoming the expectations of the month. The data confirms that the CEPO departure did not have a direct transfer at prices and that the inflation adjustment was concentrated in March, when the uncertainty for the new exchange scheme reached its maximum point.
In front of this scenario, The investment strategy focuses on the short term, with a moderate profile, at least to the legislative elections. One is raised 70% of the portfolio to instruments in pesos and the remaining 30% to dollarized assets.
What to do with pesos
Within the component in pesos, the Lecaps At the current levels, even with a dollar below the average value of the channel, The rates in pesos are attractive.
For example, the Lecap with expiration in August (S29G5) presents a price of “breaknoven” equivalent to an exchange rate of $ 1,243, what offers a Reasonable mattress against possible dollar movements.
Dollars with potential
For the remaining 30% of the portfolio, exposure to Bonds in dollarsbeing the Bonar 2038 (AE38) One of the selected instruments.
At the moment yields around 12% And, under a scenario in which the Government continues with the economic delivery -under inflation, fiscal surplus and eventually accumulation of reserves, not by the direct intervention route between the bands but through a possible placement of bonds-,, A country risk compression is projected to the 500/550 basic points. In that context, an appreciation of between 8% and 12% is expected in the price of the bonus in the short term.
A transition with opportunity
It should be noted that The Argentine market is going through a transition process towards a new exchange regime, which implies very short -term volatilities, where We must “learn to float.” Since the CEPO departure, on April 14, these oscillations have been moderating.
In this context, the defined portfolio allocation is adequate and aligned with the current scenario, combining a Prudence profitability search in risk exposure. The strategy is also consistent with a constructive vision of the economic plan, with the aim of reaching the legislative elections with a monthly inflation around 1.2%-1.7%.
AT Investment Partner
Source: Ambito
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